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View Diary: Gallup 47/47 TIE (246 comments)

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  •  But the election is not being held today (2+ / 0-)
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    pittdem, Subterranean

    And the preSjdent numbers are going down while Romney is going up.

    "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

    by sillycilla on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:41:05 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Did you even read my comment? (10+ / 0-)

      Diarist's 50-50 statement is garbage.  As is the rest of the diary. But apparently panic is great fun. Whatever.

    •  The diarist said IF election were held today (4+ / 0-)
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      roycej, Supavash, Deep Texan, arabian

      Romney would have better than a 50-50 chance.

      And even so, Nate Silver underestimates the President's chances because he uses faulty Right-wing polling (GRAVIS, WeAskAmerica) in his models.

      Furthermore, your assertion that Romney's numbers are going up while President Obama's numbers are going down is not true.

      Some closeted racists who were going to vote for Romney anyway are just more comfortable saying on a phone survey that they support Romney. That's what the debate narrative accomplished. The key constituents are STILL supporting Obama.  Check this out:

      Latino Decisions tracking poll shows virtually no post-debate movement: Obama 72 Romney 20
      And this:
      8 pt shift among white voters in Wisconsin over last 2 weeks from Obama +5 to Romney +3. No shift with non-whites:
      •  Check the poll internals, (3+ / 0-)
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        buffie, Micheline, erush1345

        MOTIVATION is highest among whites. If the electorate looks like 2008, no question Obama wins. But it won't. Young people, AA's, Latinos -- all lower intensity. The wildcard is: A LOT lower? Or only a little?

        Answer that and you know for certain.

        I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

        by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:03:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not true (3+ / 0-)
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          Supavash, Deep Texan, roycej

          Where did you get that motivation is highest among whites?

          Just a week ago, polls showed that AAs had the highest motivation of any demographic this election.


          Indeed, despite wide speculation that Obama will have to worry about lower enthusiasm and turnout among core groups — like African Americans and Latinos — the available polling suggests that this is an overblown concern. According to the most recent Pew poll, blacks are as engaged in the election as they were in 2008. Likewise, Public Policy Polling finds that African Americans are the single most excited group in the electorate — with Latinos a close second. Latino Decisions, which publishes a tracking poll of Latino public opinion, also finds high enthusiasm among the group: 46 percent report greater excitement for 2012 than 2008.

          I will tell you right now the idea that AAs are not motivated is hogwash and nothing more than a media-propagated myth, as well as wishful thinking on the part of some. And as I've said before, a scripted one-sided 90-minute debate is NOT going keep AAs aways from the polls. In fact, the media hysteria and nasty attacks on our President will get them even more motivated to vote.

        •  youre wrong about AA (1+ / 0-)
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          I'll give you young people for sure and Latinos to an extent but all the polling I've seen has AA as the most enthusiastic group. Count me among them. That will go a long way in this election.

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