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View Diary: Romney Ahead 49% to 45% in Latest Pew Research Poll (147 comments)

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  •  Echoes of the Debate Bounce (1+ / 0-)
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    Any poll that has Thursday & Friday in its sample is going to overstate Romney's support by quite a bit. We have a lot of evidence that he had his two best days of the year after the debate & that since then things have reverted to their pre-debate norms. This is a poll on a "sugar-high" if you will.

    It's all there to see in the internals--the big shift in party ID, the changing demographics. There is nothing here that is inconsistent with what generally happens in the wake of something like the debate--Rs got more enthused and answered the phone, Ds were drowning their sorrows & let it go to voice mail. Romney got a huge lift for a couple of days as his base came home & finally had something to cheer about. By Saturday, that started to ebb after the jobs report & more attention to Romney's lies. If Pew did a four-day sample that was Sat-Tues., I'm very confident they'd get very different numbers.

    Yes, if Rs turnout +5 over Ds, then Obama is toast. Rs have never once ever outnumbered Ds & unless Obama is comatose in the last two debates, it won't happen this year.

    Think about it this way, in a poll that gives Rs a +5 advantage, Romney is only up +4. That's not so hot...

    The question isn't whether or not Romney got a bounce. He did. The question is whether it sticks. It doesn't look like it did, & this poll wouldn't have caught it.

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