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View Diary: New Pew poll shows Romney gains in debate's wake (125 comments)

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  •  Pew had the candidates tied among women. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    brooklynbadboy, mightymouse

    That is perhaps the harshest reversal for Obama.

    •  But is an 18 point swing realistic? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BenderRodriguez
      •  I'm suspicious of that number. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        thereisnospoon, HudsonValleyMark

        Not because I doubt the pollster, I don't.  I just think these numbers are distorted because they were taken right after the debate.

        Have you googled Romney today?

        by fou on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 02:34:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think a lot of white women were suprised (5+ / 0-)

          that President Obama didn't bring up a lot of the things that we've been running on this year. And, not much of Romney's bullshit was refuted. So, I think they'll swing back when the pressure's on.

          I think the silver lining in this mess is that unmarried low income, low information white women are a swing constituency that has a different interest profile than the "white married working class men" we've been told to value more than any other demographic.

          I think the Obama Campaign would do well to get a lot of those kinds of women at the next debate and make sure they engineer some "moments."

          •  So it's only white people who were (0+ / 0-)

            taken with Romney's charm at the debates. According to these polls, the post-debate shift seems to only occur with whites.

            You're indirectly saying that White people are looking for any excuse to vote for Mitt Romney without actually knowing the facts?

            If Obama's debate performance is not affecting how Black or Hispanic women vote for him, why should it only affect white women?

            •  that's an extravagant generalization (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              fou

              Pew didn't even report a split for Hispanic respondents.

              You're indirectly saying that White people are looking for any excuse to vote for Mitt Romney without actually knowing the facts?
              Umm, I think he was directly saying that unmarried low income, low information white women are a swing constituency. I would guess not as "swingy" as this poll indicates; we'll know more once we can look at PPP.

              In the meantime, maybe you could step away from the meta amp?

              Election protection: there's an app for that!
              Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

              by HudsonValleyMark on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 04:04:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm not generalizing anything (0+ / 0-)

                I'm asking a question. But it seems more like BBB is simply speculating wildly to suit his own agenda.

                First of all, BBB conveniently left out the part where the almost 70% of the PEW sample are aged 50+.

                Spin this how you want, but it's simply not representative of the American voting electorate. In 2008, voters age 50+ made up 43% of the total electorate. That's less than half. So the fact that it's almost 70% in this PEW sample is a major red flag.

                http://www.people-press.org/...

        •  something to keep in mind... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          fou

          even if a poll is solid overall (solid not as in "OMG Romney Rulez" but "yep, that sure is a bounce"), individual subgroups could be way off.

          I don't think the numbers should be taken very literally regardless, but I also don't think that people should lean on the male/female splits as a reason for discounting the poll. It is possible that Pew tended to pick up men and women on different days, which could affect the splits.

          Election protection: there's an app for that!
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 04:32:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think that number right there tells us (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fou, Supavash

      this poll might be a bit off. Of course it could be a result of women's issues not being addressed at the debate. If that's the reason, Obama needs to remind women what the consequences of this election are for them.

    •  That is not accurate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PorridgeGun

      There's no way Obama could go from a double digit lead among women to a tie in just one day.

      Unless he molested a child, or gave Michelle a black eye.

      It doesn't add up. And you shall soon see that the PEW poll was way off base because their sampling was faulty.

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