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View Diary: Pew Poll states the obvious: If actual electorate is R+3, Obama loses (171 comments)

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  •  The sample was fine. (3+ / 0-)

    It's on page 2.

    It's the weighting that's wrong.  The electorate won't be R+3.  

    •  They don't weight by party affiliation (3+ / 0-)
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      HudsonValleyMark, Stevie, grubber

      They weight by demographics and phone use.  The actual difference in the number of Dem vs Reps sampled was about 1%

      •  then how did they come up with.. (0+ / 0-)

        If they wieght by Demographics then how did they come with things like 32% over 65 and 7.5% for 18-29. then there's the about 84% white/16% non white turnout model.

        •  Because those are the raw, unweighted counts (1+ / 0-)
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          Weighting is different from sampling.  It corrects for a biased sample, as best as possible.

          •  uhh but??? (1+ / 0-)
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              But just how did they weight their poll then? I mean the turnout of various age groups was far different in say 2008 versus 2010 or are they using an earlier presidential election cycle?

              I think the make up of the 2010 cycle was like 25% over 65, 11% under 30 whereas in 2008 it was more like  15% & 18%  respectively.

            •  They weight it by US Census data (0+ / 0-)

              I think you are confusing sampling with weighting.  The samples are determined by who answered the phone and which household members are home.  The weights are population based, and are intended to adjust for the disproportional numbers of respondents in various demographic and geographic groups,

    •  Well, tell me if I'm wrong, (4+ / 0-)

      but seems to me the sampling is secondary to the fact that this Pew Poll reflects the numbers through Saturday, I think.
      There is much evidence that things changed on Sunday.

      So before we worry about the weighting, lets look at the time the poll speaks for.  Last week's numbers do not reflect this week's numbers.  Which is why a rolling one week average is more likely to give you a better idea of where things are at, at least if you understand how the rolling average works.

      "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

      by StellaRay on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 04:48:33 PM PDT

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      •  I think you're absolutely right (1+ / 0-)
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        We can speculate about the sample all we like, but "secondary" is an excellent word.

        Election protection: there's an app for that!
        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

        by HudsonValleyMark on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 05:06:19 PM PDT

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      •  Exactly! (3+ / 0-)
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        royce, GustavMahler, StellaRay

        The poll ran Thursday through Sunday.

        Romney got some of his best polling numbers on Thursday and Friday. Like many of the other polls showed, his numbers probably cooled off a bit on Saturday and Sunday.

        I don't get why so many people easily freak out about this stuff here. If people would just think things through before jumping off the edge when they see bad polling. I mean hell, Obama was up 18 with women and is now tied?! That should be a big red flag for people.

        I miss Speaker Pelosi :^(

        by howarddream on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 05:10:28 PM PDT

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        •  furthermore... (1+ / 0-)
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            I've sen somewhere only like 12-13% of the sample was conducted on Sunday. The jobs report it might just take a little longer for that to sink into the polling.

             We're just starting to see some Obama tanking along with seemingly just such signs as Romney's bounce doing likewise.

        •  The reason people freak (0+ / 0-)

          is that we told ourselves that things would be okay in 2010 despite the polls, and we were wrong--we got killed.  So now we are skittish about anything that leads to the conclusion that things are going to go south again.

          Not all those who wander are lost.

          by Leftleaner on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:17:36 PM PDT

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        •  I honestly think that people want (1+ / 0-)
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          to freak out. I work with graduate students that freak at the slightest thing. I am always telling them to calm down.

          The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. - Elbert Hubbard -9.62/-8.15

          by GustavMahler on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:50:09 PM PDT

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