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View Diary: Pew Poll states the obvious: If actual electorate is R+3, Obama loses (171 comments)

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  •  They Also oversampled (13+ / 0-)

    southerners over the age of 50.

    18-49 = 338
    over 50 = 761

    note:  Likely voters are probably skewed toward this age group.

    Northeast = 201
    Midwest    = 271
    South        = 417
    West         = 223

    Note:  if regions were sampled according to population (west and northeast dominant) I'd figure a big skew toward Obama)

    •  That's what this out-of-sorts feeling is today (4+ / 0-)

      I've been oversampled.  Shoulda recognized it myself.

      Ideology is when you give the answers before you know the questions.
      It is what grows into empty spaces where intelligence has died.

      by Alden on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 05:01:15 PM PDT

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    •  But they weight it for region and age (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      so the raw sample doesn't mean a whole lot

      •  It is not weighted to region (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        for sure. Per the 2010 census (rounded down to the nearest million) the south was very much oversampled.

        Regional Population [2010]
        Northeast : 55,000,000
        West : 59,000,000
        Midwest : 65,000,000
        South : 78,000,000

        Pew sampling
        Northeast : 201
        West : 223
        Midwest : 271
        South : 417

        Obviously, 78 is not more than twice 55, yet the poll surveyed more than twice as many southerners as northeasterners. So the poll could not have been weighted to population per number of respondents.

        If you conducted the same poll but doubled your sampling in the northeast (strong Dem preference), no doubt the result would have been strongly favorable to Obama. Wouldn't it? Am I missing something?

        •  You are confusing sampling and weighting (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Based on the sample obtained through the random digit dialing process, a disproportionate number of respondents lived in the south.  So when they calculate the overall percentages, they weight the responses from the other parts of the country more to balance it.  Thus, the reported percentages have been adjusted, to the extent possible,  based on real population counts, not on the makeup of the survey respondents.

    •  also looks like they undersampled (0+ / 0-)

      the 18-29 and hispanic demographics

      "a lie that can no longer be challenged becomes a form of madness" -Debord

      by grollen on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 05:59:59 PM PDT

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    •  This is the most (0+ / 0-)

      important comment!! Southerners over 50 were over sampled. This poll is crap. Even Rachel was fooled and reported it like a real poll. I thought she was smarter.

      The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. - Elbert Hubbard -9.62/-8.15

      by GustavMahler on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:48:02 PM PDT

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