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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney takes the lead in post-debate period (404 comments)

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  •  I wouldn't count on Wisconsin (8+ / 0-)

    Wisconsin is nowhere near a sure thing.  During a trip there last week I saw almost no Obama signs/stickers.  After the Walker debacle, I wouldn't predict one way or another.  And, the polls have tightened to within MOE.

    And, Ohio requests for absentee ballots by Dems are down while requests from Repubs are up substantially.  Total requests, so far, are about half what they were in 2008.  If it is any sign of voter turnout, it is not a good sign for Obama.

    •  Do you live in either state? n/t (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      politicalceci, daeros, George3
      •  What does that matter? (6+ / 0-)

        I live in northern Illinois, for what it's worth.

        But, I think I know Wisconsin well enough, and talk to many Wisconsin residents enough to know Ryan will likely take Mitt over the top with Wisconsin voters.  He's very popular in his district which is mostly blue.

        Depending how he does on Thursday, that may cinch it.

        •  It would be great (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          boofdah, keetz4, daeros

          if residents of these states weighed in. They would have the best sense of what is happening on the ground.

          Your comments that I've seen are hypercritical of President Obama. That makes me suspicious of your intent. Pardon me if I'm in error. I have excellent instincts, though.

          •  Wisconsin residents have weighed in over (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CocoaLove, keetz4

            and over on this site and say the exact opposite of what he is saying.

            "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

            by rubyr on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 07:26:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ruby (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              rubyr, daeros

              I know. That's why I asked where he lived. Something does not smell right.

              •  CocoaLove, there are a lot of people on this (5+ / 0-)

                site that loathe Obama and always have because he didn't become a raging liberal and fix all the mess the Repugs made in 8 years by 30 days after the Inauguration. They were silent for awhile when Obama was doing well but now that there is a glitch in the works, they are out in all of their sniveling glory. Repugs do not have these type of people in their party. They are loyal.

                "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

                by rubyr on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 08:03:57 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Wisconsinite here (6+ / 0-)

                Jerry J isn't entirely wrong. Those of us most active in Wisconsin politics (i.e. the Capitol protesters, Walker recallers, etc) can become so immersed in supporters we can forget there is an ocean of ignorance out there (with a few seas of we-know-but-don't-care-because-we're-rich).

                During the recall, it was easy to believe turnout on our side would carry the day. That didn't happen (the turnout did; the carrying, not so much), and for many it was that much more disappointing for having believed the opposite.

                I reject the premise that an outside observer wouldn't know as much as those within. The argument smacks of the sports fan dismissing analysis from anyone not a fan of the team in question (what do you know? You're not even a fan of the 49ers!).

                As it is, I agree with Jerry J: Wisconsin is no sure thing. Now, if this mighty swing toward Romney is true, it will be equally swingy when the President wipes the floor with him in the next two debates. So, the state of the state is tenuous - for now. I'm not particularly worried, but I am particularly motivated.

                The problem with going with your gut as opposed to your head is that the former is so often full of shit. - Randy Chestnut

                by lotusmaglite on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 08:27:51 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Please don't do this (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                I know. That's why I asked where he lived. Something does not smell right.
                If your fellow Kossacks disagree with you, please do not allege that something does not "smell right" about them.  

                It is not appropriate to allege that other Kossacks are shills or otherwise not what they seem, at least not without evidence to back it up.

                My head says "No" but my heart says "Yes". And then my liver says "What?" and my butt's all like "Farrrrrrt" --jbou

                by Caj on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 11:17:05 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  ??? Ask still-Mayor of MKE Barrett how that works (7+ / 0-)

              WI is not locked up.
              Baldwin for Senate is not locked up.

              We're the reality-based community, remember?

              The GOP says you have to have an ID to vote, but $ Millionaire donors should remain anonymous?

              by JVolvo on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 08:32:48 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  I also live in Illinois and in August I attended a (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          boofdah, keetz4, JVolvo

          wedding in of all places, Janesville Wisconsin! The Rotary Bontanical Garden was beautiful and I did not see any great love for the Ryan! Of course I was only there for 2 days...I talked to a lot of people just to see what they think. I never gave any hint that I was a Democrat. I just cannot understand how just one, bad it was, debate turned so many people? voters have to remember once RR are elected, there is no, NEVER MIND!

        •  Ryan is not as well liked here in Wisconsin (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          daeros, peregrine kate

          as you think he is.

          remember to use positive affirmations. "i am not a dork" is not one of them

          by Altoid77 on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 08:15:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  WI is not a done deal. Ask still-Mayor Barrett. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        daeros, Victor Ward

        PS Your question is irrelevant.  Markos doesn't live in OH, either.

        The GOP says you have to have an ID to vote, but $ Millionaire donors should remain anonymous?

        by JVolvo on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 06:34:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Womp womp womp (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      daeros, BenderRodriguez, thurst, JVolvo

      Yard signs and stickers vote right? If I brought a sticker abroad, would it mail in an absentee ballot?

      NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

      by nycyoungin on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 06:12:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Many people who write on this site about (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      boofdah, Altoid77, Buckeye Nation, daeros

      Wisconsin continually and who live there have reported over and over the exact opposite of what you are saying. I think they know better since as a group they cover a huge part of the state. How much area are you talking about where you saw no Obama signs? Was it a Republican area? You are stating as fact something that you have no basis for.

      How do you know requests for Ohio ballots are down? Do you work for Ohio SOS? Could we have something to substantiate that claim. Maybe a few links?

      "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

      by rubyr on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 07:24:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What do you expect from Wisconsin kossacks? (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JVolvo, sneakers563, daeros, Caj, Victor Ward

        Sorry.. but I highly doubt you are seeing a true cross section of residents in any state here at dKos.

      •  here ya go.. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cameoanne, FightingRegistrar, JVolvo

        AP article...

        Romney cuts into Obama's early voter advantage
        North Carolina:

        Among the 29,400 voters who have cast absentee ballots in North Carolina, 54 percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are Democrats, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University.

        It's a small sample — more than 2.6 million people voted before Election Day in North Carolina in 2008. And these are all mail ballots, which have historically favored Republicans; in-person voting starts Oct. 18 in North Carolina. Nevertheless, Republicans are encouraged because McCain lost the state's early vote by 11 percentage points.

        McCain lost early votes by 11 pts..  Repubs are up over Dems by 26%.. It is a trend that, as the article implies, will likely reverse.. but the magnitude of the gap 30 days before election is hard to ignore..

        In 2008 Dems had a 15 point lead over Repubs in absentee ballot requests.  Dem requests are down and GOP requests are up.  Now there is only a 6 point lead for Dems.

        In Ohio, a perennial battleground state, Democrats have an edge over Republicans among people who have requested absentee ballots, though relatively few completed ballots have been submitted. Among the 691,000 people who have requested absentee ballots in 49 of the state's 88 counties, 30 percent are Democrats and 24 percent are Republicans. Forty-six percent are unaffiliated voters, according to data collected by the AP.
        Dems have always had this edge.,.. what the article doesn't say is how much that edge has shrunk so far this year.

        Now.. raw data..
        (Remember to read the caveats..)

        Raw Data - 2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests

        So.. none of this is definitive..  but if you take into account party enthusiasm, add this absentee data and and then factor in all the other little anecdotal pieces of information, you have to come to the conclusion that it will be a much tighter race in some of these battleground states than the poll numbers show.

        And we still have 3 more debates to go!

        Kossacks reporting the exact opposite in Wisconsin? Really!
        Are those the same kossacks who reported a big loss for Walker in June?

        •  Thanks much! However, doesn't Ohio have (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          open primaries?  The D/R thing doesn't necessarily tell us that much because the ballots requested are sorted by the last primary someone voted in.  Quite a few Dems voted in the Ohio primary as I recall.

          Also, there are a lot of staunchly Republican counties that didn't participate in the reporting of ballot requests in 2008 that are doing so now.  In reality, if you include all those counties from 2008, it probably wasn't D +15.

          I say we wait until we get closer to the election before making apples to apples comparisons in Ohio.

          •  Yes.. the warning on the right side of the raw (0+ / 0-)

            data goes into that.  It is iffy.. but as I said, taken along with other hints and trends, there should be concern about all these battleground states.  Dems should not get complacent.

        •  B-b-but (something something that somehow (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          refutes the data).  So there!

          The GOP says you have to have an ID to vote, but $ Millionaire donors should remain anonymous?

          by JVolvo on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:06:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Goodness me!!! We have a bona fide seer amongst us (0+ / 0-)

          "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

          by rubyr on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:16:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  And yet the President just had the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      largest rally to date there last week, the day after the debate no less.
      30,000 Wisconsinites to listen to Obama at Madison UW.

      "...I just want you to know there are BILLIONS of us rooting for you..." Sir Paul McCartney

      by eden4barack08 on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 08:58:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  All I know about Wisconsin (0+ / 0-)

      is that the President is spending a lot of money on GOTV.

      He is poaching Minnesota because we, frankly, are a lock.

      I volunteer in Minnesota and we have lost two interns to Wisconsin. They were paying positions, so I can't blame them.

      Besides, one went to Hudson, Wisconsin, which is absolutely gorgeous this time of year. If I were her age (20s), I would have totally done it.

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