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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney takes the lead in post-debate period (404 comments)

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  •  Many people who write on this site about (4+ / 0-)
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    boofdah, Altoid77, Buckeye Nation, daeros

    Wisconsin continually and who live there have reported over and over the exact opposite of what you are saying. I think they know better since as a group they cover a huge part of the state. How much area are you talking about where you saw no Obama signs? Was it a Republican area? You are stating as fact something that you have no basis for.

    How do you know requests for Ohio ballots are down? Do you work for Ohio SOS? Could we have something to substantiate that claim. Maybe a few links?

    "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

    by rubyr on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 07:24:31 AM PDT

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    •  What do you expect from Wisconsin kossacks? (5+ / 0-)
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      JVolvo, sneakers563, daeros, Caj, Victor Ward

      Sorry.. but I highly doubt you are seeing a true cross section of residents in any state here at dKos.

    •  here ya go.. (3+ / 0-)
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      cameoanne, FightingRegistrar, JVolvo

      AP article...

      Romney cuts into Obama's early voter advantage
      North Carolina:

      Among the 29,400 voters who have cast absentee ballots in North Carolina, 54 percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are Democrats, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University.

      It's a small sample — more than 2.6 million people voted before Election Day in North Carolina in 2008. And these are all mail ballots, which have historically favored Republicans; in-person voting starts Oct. 18 in North Carolina. Nevertheless, Republicans are encouraged because McCain lost the state's early vote by 11 percentage points.

      McCain lost early votes by 11 pts..  Repubs are up over Dems by 26%.. It is a trend that, as the article implies, will likely reverse.. but the magnitude of the gap 30 days before election is hard to ignore..

      In 2008 Dems had a 15 point lead over Repubs in absentee ballot requests.  Dem requests are down and GOP requests are up.  Now there is only a 6 point lead for Dems.

      In Ohio, a perennial battleground state, Democrats have an edge over Republicans among people who have requested absentee ballots, though relatively few completed ballots have been submitted. Among the 691,000 people who have requested absentee ballots in 49 of the state's 88 counties, 30 percent are Democrats and 24 percent are Republicans. Forty-six percent are unaffiliated voters, according to data collected by the AP.
      Dems have always had this edge.,.. what the article doesn't say is how much that edge has shrunk so far this year.

      Now.. raw data..
      (Remember to read the caveats..)

      Raw Data - 2012 vs. 2008 Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests

      So.. none of this is definitive..  but if you take into account party enthusiasm, add this absentee data and and then factor in all the other little anecdotal pieces of information, you have to come to the conclusion that it will be a much tighter race in some of these battleground states than the poll numbers show.

      And we still have 3 more debates to go!

      Kossacks reporting the exact opposite in Wisconsin? Really!
      Are those the same kossacks who reported a big loss for Walker in June?

      •  Thanks much! However, doesn't Ohio have (1+ / 0-)
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        open primaries?  The D/R thing doesn't necessarily tell us that much because the ballots requested are sorted by the last primary someone voted in.  Quite a few Dems voted in the Ohio primary as I recall.

        Also, there are a lot of staunchly Republican counties that didn't participate in the reporting of ballot requests in 2008 that are doing so now.  In reality, if you include all those counties from 2008, it probably wasn't D +15.

        I say we wait until we get closer to the election before making apples to apples comparisons in Ohio.

        •  Yes.. the warning on the right side of the raw (0+ / 0-)

          data goes into that.  It is iffy.. but as I said, taken along with other hints and trends, there should be concern about all these battleground states.  Dems should not get complacent.

      •  B-b-but (something something that somehow (1+ / 0-)
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        refutes the data).  So there!

        The GOP says you have to have an ID to vote, but $ Millionaire donors should remain anonymous?

        by JVolvo on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 12:06:39 PM PDT

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      •  Goodness me!!! We have a bona fide seer amongst us (0+ / 0-)

        "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

        by rubyr on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 03:16:42 PM PDT

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