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View Diary: StephenCLE's Election Ratings - Oct 8 (41 comments)

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  •  Can you give specific on this? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Why Donnelly, vs. Carmona?  Is it that there is a bit more data for IN, or data more convincing, or that IN went for Obama in 2008?  Or is it the challenger quality (Mourdock vs Flake)?

    •  The leading candidates almost never have 45% (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, ChicDemago, MichaelNY

      and Indiana voters are stereotypically much more party-line partisan than Arizonans. While Donnelly may be doing a hair better than Carmona in polls, I think Carmona's task is a much more doable one. I also think Pence will hurt Donnelly and I think Arizona will be closer presidentially.

      ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

      by GoUBears on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:01:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  very interesting... wondering about Lugar effect (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, ChicDemago, MichaelNY

        also the Bayh effect.

        Some Indiana moderates might feel that replacing Lugar with Mourdock is too right-wing for them, especially since Bayh is gone from IN.   Lugar/Bayh suited Indiana well - two moderate or only slightly conservative Senators.

        I think some Lugar Republicans might swing over to Donnelly for these reasons.  Another reason for hope is that IN did go for Obama.

        Perhaps the debates will affect the outcome...

      •  On the other hand (0+ / 0-)

        Arizona hasn't elected a Democratic senator for a long time, whereas Indiana has, much more recently.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:06:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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