Skip to main content

View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Where the race stands (188 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  it needs to be consistent, upward movement (0+ / 0-)

    not one or two day uptick followed by a 5-day flat line.

    This is the whole reason we have 7-day polls. They are very good at distinguishing real movement from ephemeral bounces.

    •  but, on the other hand... (0+ / 0-)

      As I think you called out before, the fact that the RAND participants have been interviewed repeatedly means that they may not be the best place to look for dynamics.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 06:54:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  that's already reflected in how marginal (0+ / 0-)

        the movement was in the first place.

        •  here's my point (0+ / 0-)

          If the RAND panel is, by now, wildly unrepresentative of the electorate, then maybe it doesn't matter much how little it changed.

          It will be a few more days before we have decent information from a variety of sources about what likely voters think this week. Until then, just from an analytic perspective, I don't think anyone should be pounding the table very hard about where the contest stands.

          Election protection: there's an app for that!
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:50:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site