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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Where the race stands (188 comments)

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  •  Nate isn't making predictions (0+ / 0-)

    He developed a model that predicts things. He's not really standing there predicting anything. He lets the math do the talking.

    He uses the same kind of system we use when we play poker. And if you play poker, you know that 75% to 25% doesn't mean the 75% always wins. It means 75% of the time, over many many many hands, that hand will win.

    I get a lot of bad beats, despite being on the 75% side of things. That's just how stats work.

    It certainly doesn't make him a hack, any more than it would make the deck of cards a hack.

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