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View Diary: Devastating Cross Tabs Destroy the Pew Poll (188 comments)

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  •  Some of it is sampling noise (0+ / 0-)

    Keep in mind that with a 4% MOE, you can get an 8% swing due to chance alone with no change in the underlying electorate.  If you keep sampling over and over and over the way we are doing, we greatly increase the odds that this happens.  Here, a modest boost might just be lining up with some noise.  The Romney boost is probably about 2-3%, in line with historical trends and this one overestimates it.  The poll of polls will iron this out heading into next week and we'll ahve a sense of where we are at then.

    Never believe your own press, never drink your own KoolAid

    by Mindful Nature on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 11:48:55 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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