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View Diary: Another word about the Pew Poll (5 comments)

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  •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

    Yes, Pew hired a fresh bunch of guys to work on these polls. Those guys are still learning how to do polls. May be we should send a few of the huge population of Kossack expert pollsters to help them out with this.

    Alternately, we can create an UnskewedPolls website to correct these polls.

    These comments in a different diary are relevant
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    We went through this back in 2004.
    Kossacks became experts at wading through poll internals to prove that Kerry was actually going to win.  
    •  Pffft. Their previous poll was ridiculous (0+ / 0-)

      as well.  They showed Obama with the largest lead of the cycle, and their screen was laughable.  They assumed a +10 D voter behavior for Nov 6 in that one.  Now they reversed course, assuming a lopsided R voter behavior.  Neither is going to happen, it will be, in the end, closer to the same behavior we have seen in 2004, 2006,   2008, etc.   Either close to a tie (as when incumbent George Bush ran again) or about a D+2 or D+3.   Screened like that Pew would have come up with different findings, a close race, but slightly in Obama's favor.    Pew has been all over the place, and on top their poll was in the field right after a debate, which is not the true state of the race, obviously (just like polls taken right after a convention aren't the true state of the race, obviously.)

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