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View Diary: Don't let debate panic become the new narrative (135 comments)

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  •  Not Really. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell
    And make no mistake, the poll numbers are catastrophic.
    Only to people who are scared of their own shadow.

    The numbers aren't good, but they'll probably get better as last Thursday and Friday's numbers cycle out of the poll samples.

    I miss Speaker Pelosi :^(

    by howarddream on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 07:50:14 AM PDT

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    •  Yes, really (0+ / 0-)
      Only to people who are scared of their own shadow.
      They're catastrophic.

      It's a fair analysis. Let's not pretend that if the roles were reversed, we weren't be calling these polls catastrophic for Romney.

      Jesus.

      Yes, polls may improve for Obama, but that doesn’t mean the last week hasn’t been as bad as it’s been.

      •  Take a look at Nate Silver (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        howarddream, wu ming, Larsstephens

        Obama's Electoral College Advantage--

        296.7 to Romney's 241.3

        Only one of these is a winning number and it ain't Romney's.

        Take a look at Obama's chances of winning v. Romney's at this point--

        71.2% v. 28.8%

        Not exactly what I would call catastrophic polls.

        http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

        Ryan lies; seniors die.

        by NCJan on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:16:44 AM PDT

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        •  Trust me, I read every Nate Silver (0+ / 0-)

          post on fivethirtyeight and follow his righthand column religiously. That's where I go for my dose of sanity when, for example, Gallup inexplicably showed a tied race in the middle of Obama's convention bounce.

          But look at that right hand column again. Since Oct 2, there's been a net swing of 44 in the electoral college (+21.9 for Romney, -21.9 for Obama). That equates to a net swing of 72 in the Nowcast!

          Since Oct 2, Nate shows Romney doubling his chances of winning in the Nov 6th forecast. In the nowcast, he's roughly 7 times more likely to win than he was a week ago.

          Not to mention, he didn't exactly sound as if panic was inappropriate last night on TRMS.

          I stand by my assertion, these polls (Nate included) are catastrophic.

      •  Bad =/= Catastrophic. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        Please peddle your hyperbole elsewhere.

        You and the other knee-jerk reactionaries here are boring as hell.

        I miss Speaker Pelosi :^(

        by howarddream on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 10:46:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bad news: Catastrophic = bad (0+ / 0-)

          What I’ve stated is my opinion, not hyperbole. I’m sorry if my presenting what I find to be compelling evidence to buttress that opinion apparently yanks down the covers you’ve pulled up over your head, but your solution isn’t for me to stop posting, it’s for you to stop replying.

          You and the other head-in-the-sand-only-prefer-good-news denialists here are boring as hell.

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