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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: GOPer Scott DesJarlais pushed mistress/patient to have abortion (161 comments)

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  •  My only significant disagreements...... (3+ / 0-)

    I think Duckworth clocks Walsh by more than 20.  I say Walsh doesn't reach 40%.  Not only is he the worst possible Republican by profile and temperament in this already-impossible district, but he also is a lousy campaigner and that further costs him votes.

    And I'm guessing right now that Vilsack takes out King.  Her ads and her allies' ads have been OK at hammering King...not great but OK, plus she's done a decent job defining herself.  I'm guessing Presidential turnout and Obama eeking out the state does the job to erase King.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:02:39 AM PDT

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    •  Did you see the DCCC (0+ / 0-)

      released an internal with Duckworth up 10?  I always thought she would win by more but adjusted internally.

      And in IA-04, PPP had a poll not too long ago with King up 3 that didn't make me feel great, but there still may be some upside for Vilsack.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:11:13 AM PDT

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      •  Vilsack is the classic challenger (0+ / 0-)

        The reality of House races is that a lot of winning challengers trail the whole way until sometime in the final month, not uncommonly right up to the final week or two.

        So the trendline is all I cared about, the fact there was a favorable one was enough for me.

        Regarding Walsh, I just see this as a race that keeps trending away from him continuously without arrest.  He isn't a typical incumbent, he's a terrible guy with no redeeming traits in his public image, and now in a very Democratic district against a competent opponent.  That's a recipe for disaster for him, he's not remotely viable.

        Basically I see this playing out the way things played out for Alan Grayson in 2010, where he lost I would bet by a larger margin than any polling showed 3 weeks out.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 11:53:35 AM PDT

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