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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: GOPer Scott DesJarlais pushed mistress/patient to have abortion (161 comments)

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  •  I have been a little worried (0+ / 0-)

    I posted most of this really late last night - reposting it now with some updated thoughts.

    I'm not turning into Mark or JJ, but I admit I've been feeling a little more down on the campaign the last couple days than I was last week. I figured Romney would get a bounce out of the debate, and the first couple polls didn't bother me. I was hoping though that we'd get more signs that the debate bounce was fading, and so far the evidence has been pretty mixed.

    I still consider Obama the favorite - the fundamentals point to a narrow Obama win, his approvals are just about at 50%, his favorability ratings are (mostly) still higher than Romney's, and the Electoral Map is still more favorable to him. And OFA has a fantastic ground game.

    But I admit that the last couple days are really the first time I'm confronting the fact that Romney could win. And that's a very scary thought.

    My concerns: (1) the swing state polls are mostly reassuring, but if Romney continues to draw even or narrowly lead Obama nationally, you may well see them swing towards Romney. The Electoral College can misfire. It usually doesn't.

    (2) Obama may well prove much better in the next debate. But he might not. As someone who didn't actually think he was that bad last Wednesday, he just generally isn't a great debater. He's fine - he always sounds knowledgeable and prepared, but he doesn't do soundbites, isn't pithy. Moreover, although I think he should go after Romney more aggressively, that can backfire -- if focus groups or viewers polls view it negatively, the press can end up bouncing on a "desperation" line.

    Again, I still think he's the likely favorite - but it's way too close for comfort and I see a plausible scenario where things get worse.

    I'd add this morning that the new state polls were reassuring, and Nate Silver's new post also offers some encouragement, arguing that state polls are actually more predictive -- not only of the state-by-state results but of the national popular vote -- and that if there's a mismatch between the two (such as in 2000), the overall vote tends to trend towards what the state polls suggest. (That said, it's more an anecdotal observation than a detailed, quantitative analysis.)

    •  I'm the opposite... (0+ / 0-)

      I'm seeing this as Obama's worst position after a very tough (self-inflicted) week. And we're still ahead in enough Most Important States to win the electoral college. He's not going to weaken from here.

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