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View Diary: Quinnipiac: O+5 VA, O+3 WI, R+1 CO (112 comments)

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  •  I don't buy this (8+ / 0-)

    Just like I didn't buy the criticism of the Pew poll.  The electorate is as you find it.  Party ID is fluid, subject to daily shifts in enthusiasm.  

    At the time of the Pew poll, Obama supporters were bummed and less sure of voting.  Leaning Dems may have identified as independents.  

    The fact that they found 11% more Dems during this poll is a nice result in itself.  May not completely reflect the reality of election day, but it indicates that Ohio Dems are voting and enthusiastic.

    •  Exactly, they found a lot of Dems (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwjjd, wishingwell, Delilah

      who had already voted early. Those are banked votes so those people are definitely "likely voters" and included in the poll.

      Also, 2008 was 39 Dem/31 Rep. Not terribly off the mark of this poll's numbers of 40/29.

      I'm a dyslexic agnostic insomniac. I lie awake at night wondering if there's a dog.

      by rennert on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 11:10:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yep, its demos that matter, ID is far too fluid. ( (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      and for national polls geography counts too.  I'd pretty much gaurantee that 1%s best polls are Southern respondent heavy - by as much as 50% for Pew. Since the south is lopsidedly pro-Thug even 'reweighing' won't really fix it to accurate %s (indeed, if enthusiasm is part of the Lv screen, it may add further bias to one party or the other depending on how the sample affects the top lines, explaining partly the huge swing from a very pro-O prior poll to current).

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