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View Diary: Quinnipiac: O+5 VA, O+3 WI, R+1 CO (112 comments)

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  •  This is the key to "likely voter" models (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rennert, scamperdo, smartdemmg, cdub24

    Alot of the national polls use theoretical questions about enthusiasm to determine likely voter models.  Clearly, if someone has already voted, they count as a "likely voter" regardless of enthusiasm.  So any Dems disheartened by the debate but who have already voted still count as likely voters.  This is not necessarily the case in he national poll likely voter models.

    The early voting numbers also show the strength of the OH ground game.  And going forward, this means team Obama will have more volunteers focusing on fewer voters to get to the polls.

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