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View Diary: NBC/WSJ/Marist No Real Change Post Debate in Florida/Virginia/Ohio (50 comments)

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  •  I'm no polling expert... (1+ / 0-)
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    but I've been checking the RAND poll every day.

    Today, Obama's ahead 48.2-46.3, which is too close for comfort, and it seems to be getting closer each day.

    But here's the thing I don't get. They also released some breakdown information:

    Hispanic: Obama leads 61-34. Okay, that one makes sense.

    But then...

    Non-hispanic African-American: Obama leads 75-22.

    Non-hispanic white: Obama leads 49.47-46.27.

    Do those last two sets of numbers seem odd? I thought until seeing that that RAND had a pretty good poll. Now I'm not so sure, but perhaps someone with better insight and knowledge can set me straight.

    How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

    by BenderRodriguez on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 04:47:55 AM PDT

    •  Oh, one more thing: (1+ / 0-)
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      Obama is also winning the "other" category 61-38.

      So, if Obama is leading every category -- and whites by 3.2% -- how can he be winning nationally by only 2%?

      Again, I'm not a math guy. Please, someone, help me out here.


      How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

      by BenderRodriguez on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 04:52:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rand dropped off a great Obama day (6+ / 0-)

      They dropped 10/3 and we still have the toxic days (10/4-5) In the mix. So that explains the tic up for Romney down for Obama. This will also show in Gallup today to so be prepared. BTW I have an explanation for the scope of the debate spikes. On the day just before and the day of the debate both Ds and R's took counsel of their fears and expectations. Ds were waiting for Obama to cream Romney and expecting it to happen. R's were afraid that the Ds were right and dropped their expectations accordingly. When the opposite occurred, Ds tanked and R's were relieved and excited. I saw this at a debate party with D activists-mostly A/As. They came in looking for the kill and left quiet and down. But if you look at Gallup and Rand this scenario was perfectly predictable. And shows in the data. On 10/3 Obama had his best approvals in Gallup since 2009 and Romney his worst positives. Same in Rand on the same day. Then the deluge and we went down, Romney spiked up. It has been my experience that when your hopes are high and they are dashed you react more negatively than if you have measured expectations and the converse if you are expecting bad things and get good ones.

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