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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/11 (morning edition) (437 comments)

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  •  They released their outlier (7+ / 0-)

    They got a good outlier, and released it.

    This is akin to Dems releasing internals in WI-Gov recall.

    I'm quite confident the polling averages are in the right ballpark in both races, and that means Obama leads barely and Kaine leads by more.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:13:33 AM PDT

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    •  Do you think the presidential race in Virginia (0+ / 0-)

      will be tighter than last time? I think it might be, but I also think, depending on how the final few weeks go, he could see a slight bump from last time, maybe up to seven points or so.

      Which leads me to ask, is this latest flirtation with Romney a sign of legitimate tightening or something temporary? If I recall correctly, he hasn't lead in a poll in the state in some time, if more than a year. I don't see why this would have changed in the last week, even with a weak debate performance.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:20:14 AM PDT

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      •  Looks like it will be tighter (0+ / 0-)

        And Romney has led in several polls this year.

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:25:54 AM PDT

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        •  All of those polls are from Ras, WAA, Gravis, or (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MBishop1, itskevin

          Purple Strategies.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 11:53:14 AM PDT

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          •  Marist today is the only valid poll... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, ArkDem14, itskevin

            ...giving Romney a lead, and of course it's just one point and it's the only time a valid pollster has given Romney that much.  And Q-poll, of equal quality as Marist, says the opposite, a decent Obama lead, the very same day.

            But Virginia is legitimately very tight.

            But I think it has been all year!  It's a little tighter now, but I think those PPP and WaPo polls that kept showing big Obama leads were likely not accurate.  There have been media reports saying private polling gives Obama a smaller lead than that, and I always gathered it was low-to-mid-single digits.  So the current polls don't really depart from that.

            I cannot emphasize too much how bad public polling has been this year!  Look for example at the RCP list of polls in Virginia.  Here are pollsters who should be thrown away without pause up front:  Rasmussen; Gravis; We Ask America; Purple Strategies; and Roanoke College.  And now we know we might have to perpetually disregard Suffolk, which I've always found odd simply for the very high undecideds they always have.  Then you're left with PPP, Marist, Q-poll, and WaPo.  All four are OK, although like I said I think the PPP and WaPo margins for Obama were inflated, it was never that good for us.  And Marist once had Obama +17, 52-35!  Q-poll has had some volatility in the state even when nothing was happening to cause a real shift.  So no one has been immune from deserving suspicion at times.

            It just makes it tough to evaluate, beyond just trusting the polling average itself which at least has been reasonable all along.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 12:03:49 PM PDT

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            •  All of that, yes, plus... (0+ / 0-)

              what has fundamentally changed about the race? After weeks and weeks of shitty to really shitty news, they got one good debate, plus a possible problem with how Libya was handled, which may or may not matter in the end and may be negated by better economic news. I don't mean to beat a dead horse or seem like I have my head buried in the sand by constantly bringing this up, but I don't see why it should be getting tighter, aside from it always ending up like this in ever race but a blowout. Maybe it'll be "corrected" in a few days, or maybe it's just never going to go beyond six points unless things get really bad for Romney. Whatever the case, at the risk of sounding like a naive optimist, I can't help but think this is the epitome of temporary.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 12:09:12 PM PDT

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      •  I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings (0+ / 0-)

        But I think it's legitimate. It does not mean Romney's going to win. Obama is still the solid favorite. But right now, it's legit.

        •  I guess, but it does seem like (0+ / 0-)

          a stretch that there's been real movement over one debate. What else is there?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 11:55:05 AM PDT

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