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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/11 (morning edition) (437 comments)

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  •  So here is what I found (5+ / 0-)

    1992:

    -87% White!

    1996:

    83% White
    10% Black
    5% Hispanic
    1% Asian

    2000:

    81% White
    10% Black
    7% Hispanic
    2% Asian

    (Also amazing that Gore tied Bush with 18-24 year olds in 2000).

    2004:

    77% White
    11% Black
    8% Hispanic
    2% Asian
    2% Other

    2008:

    74% White
    13% Black
    9% Hispanic
    2% Asian
    3% Other

    Other lessons taken from http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu are:

    1. Any poll with less than a 7 point gender gap in favor of Obama is full of shit (that's what it was for even Kerry).

    2. Any poll that says we are suddenly going to break a 20 year trend in minority participation in elections cough Gallup cough ridiculous in its assumptions or something is going wrong in it's polling methodology.

    Minority percentage of this electorate simply will be between 72-74%, Gallup needs to find some way to account for that, rather than end up with their 2000 era racial composition that their Likely Voter pool is probably hovering around.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:33:39 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  That seems like a steady trajectory (0+ / 0-)

      Nearly linear, if put into a regression plot

    •  Is there a quick way to determine how the state (0+ / 0-)

      numbers might skew the national numbers? I know these things usually move together, but I wonder if it's possible that strong minority support in a state where it's not likely to matter one way or the other could make things seem more possible than they are.

      Or is this something already accounted for?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:42:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Large, safe states can swing national numbers (0+ / 0-)

        Think California, Texas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Connecticut.  

        Nate Silver had a theory that a big part of the DNC bounce was Obama pushing significantly better numbers in California. Now we are seeing Obama dropping hard in California and Massachusetts (but obviously still safe D). Given the percentage of the population that lives there, it can be a pretty significant reason for a "divergence" of national and swing state polls.

        •  There's only so much more that can be said (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          about this until we get the numbers, so I will simply say that I would be very interested in seeing what OFA expects certain metrics to be (especially in a state like Arizona) and what they turn out to be. It seems easy enough to come up with a plausible scenario of Obama getting close to 50 with a superb performance amongst Hispanics in Arizona and what I expect his numbers to be amongst whites, for instance, but OFA is filled with professionals who have better information and estimations than I do or could come up with.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 09:53:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  seven point gender gap? (0+ / 0-)

      ouch. Doesn't bode well for me.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 10:01:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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