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View Diary: Nate Silver Forecasts an Election Victory For Obama Even Though Romney Now Leads in Some Polls (12 comments)

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  •  I'd say it's 60-40 Obama wins... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, Demi Moaned, LordMike

    but it was as high as 80-20 before the debate.  Also I think there is a real chance Romney wins the popular vote which would be a disaster in it's own right and cripple any Obama mandate in his second term.  

    "The Democratic Party is not our friend: it is the only party we can negotiate with." Rebecca Solnit The Rain on Our Parade.

    by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 06:01:43 PM PDT

    •  Not sure about that (5+ / 0-)

      If Romney won the popular vote and lost the Electoral College, it might become a matter of bipartisan consensus to get rid of the Electoral College. I wouldn't mind that.

      "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

      by Demi Moaned on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 06:10:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd agree rounding off to 60-40 is probably more (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      democrattotheend, Larsstephens

      reasonable give the enormous uncertainties here and the fact that "forecast" probabilities are not really the same as normal pure mathematical probabilities since we we can not predict inputs to the forecast models such as stock market fluctuations, debate performances.  

      Intrade has President Obama at about 62%.  

      So, I agree with you.

      The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

      by HoundDog on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 06:14:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I would not be sad... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, HoundDog

      ...if Romney won the popular vote, as long as we won the Presidency.

      Didn't GW Bush prove that you don't need a "mandate" to do things?  And Obama's 1st term proved that having a mandate is not a silver bullet.

      In fact, I hope we win the EC without the popular vote. Maybe then we can wake some Conservatives up to the fact that the Electoral College needs to be reformed.

      We may even get some of the more sensible Conservatives to support Paper Ballots and an end to those black-box Diebold voting machines.

      I hope they lose and I hope they feel cheated. It is the only way to get them on the side of Election Reform...

      •  Electoral College prevents Citizens United... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog

        from completely putting the elections up for purchase.  

        Candidates would have to run national campaigns - with national ad buys in expensive as hell markets that right now are not in play - Cali, Texas, Boston, Chicago etc.  

        "The Democratic Party is not our friend: it is the only party we can negotiate with." Rebecca Solnit The Rain on Our Parade.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:37:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I really don't see the difference... (0+ / 0-)

          ...between having to raise $2 billion and $20 billion. They are both numbers that our out of reach for a Progressive.

          (Not a Democrat, mind you. A Progressive...)

          What it will do is remove the built-in advantage that small states get.

          It will also make 3rd parties possible...

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