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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/12 (afternoon edition) (141 comments)

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  •  I pretty much agree with your assessment (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, itskevin

    Nationally, it basically looks like a tie in the popular vote, but Obama has an electoral college advantage.  If the election were held today, I think Obama would take OH, WI, NV (victory!), IA, VA, and CO.  Romney takes NC and FL.  Obama wins 303-235.

    •  agree (1+ / 0-)
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      I think on election day Obama wins FL, but he would lose it today.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:15:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd say Romney takes Colorado today (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLDemocrat, jncca

      But otherwise, I think this is right. Virginia is really close though, I think. So is CO, but it leans just the other way.

      •  we held CO-Sen and Gov in 2010 (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, LordMike, JBraden, askew

        I doubt we'll end up losing it this year.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 02:41:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The reason I think Obama would eke out a win in CO (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MBishop1, askew, KingofSpades

        You have Quinnipiac and SUSA giving Romney a 1 point lead; however, you have one of the best in the business, Ann Selzer, giving Obama a 4 point lead.

        But the key is, Democratic presidential and Senatorial candidates have been strongly outperforming the polling averages in CO the past few election cycles - by about 3-4 points.  

        It's hard to put a finger on exactly why, but the best guess is a high number of Latino, young, and transient voters.

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