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View Diary: On elections and 'likely voters' (180 comments)

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  •  Not to beat a dead horse, but... (18+ / 0-)

    Polls that do not include cell phones cannot be taken seriously in 2012.

    I have no landline and I'm 56. I cannot imagine that voters under 30 keep one now.

    Also, wouldn't it also be true that in the case of last week, Romney's supporters were very excited about the debate and happily answered and Obama's didn't?

    Dig the new single from Papa Knuckerhole himself: http://soundcloud.com/jangellamf/my-les

    by Johnny Wendell on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 08:10:01 AM PDT

    •  PPP doesn't call cell phones (5+ / 0-)

      and they seem to be alright.

      I like to take the robopoll and the cell phone sensitive interview type polls together and just look for trends rather than preferring one over the other.

    •  We have a landline but don't keep it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      annieli, Wary, Egalitare

      turned on very often. It's for outgoing calls only. I have to say that maybe it's just where I live, but more people I know have no land line and just have a cellphone.

      When I was phonebanking in '08, some states obviously had this issue because no one would pick up, like in NY and stuff, whereas in the South, they seemed to all pick up. We were only given land line numbers.

    •  Is there a way (0+ / 0-)

      That people with cell phones can "opt in" to getting calls from polls? Will polls be able to call cell phone users in the future?

    •  To the excitement = answer the phone issue (4+ / 0-)

      My impression is that poll analysts generally assume that someone excited enough to answer the phone is also more likely to vote. I'm not sure they always make that caveat though, so it could be more that they are lucky phone answering excitement tends to equal voting excitement. It should be a big issue, but doesn't seem to get much attention (probably because pollsters don't want to undermine their own polling).

      Data I'd like to see would be the hang-up rates and non-answer rates for each poll (i.e. number called versus number reached versus number participated). This could give you a better read on how much of the population the poll is missing. So many people have caller i.d. now (especially on cell phones) that there must be a huge number of people that ignore pollsters, is this a biased sample of the population?

      •  Also, if you don't speak English well, (0+ / 0-)

        you might be uncomfortable speaking on the phone to a pollster.

        For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

        by Anne Elk on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 09:14:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  this is 100% true. both my husband and I (0+ / 0-)

      have no land line and haven't since 2004. (or 2001 if you count VoIP). And we're 44 and 50 years old. His kids living in our FL home are in their 20s. Also with no land line phone in the house. All four of us, rabid Obama voters. And my husband and I are contributors and I am a volunteer.

      So.

      There.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 09:03:34 AM PDT

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      •  ok but don't you think the whole cell phone issue (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle

        cross party lines?  If everyone you know doesn't have a landline....don't you think everyone they know doesn't have one either?  

        I personally think it is pretty much a draw on that.  You can argue that  poor people are more likely to only have cells...but honestly does that really apply anymore to an extreme.  For one,  poverty crosses the same party lines, they just happen to vote against their own self interests.  Two, the wealthy now also carry cells in place of land lines.  I would argue there is almost just as much a chance that wealthy people have no need thus do not own land lines any more than anyone else in this day and age.

        You can argue the older generations might have more land lines and thus get polled more...but their age alone is already weighted accordingly in polls and they vote more conservative.   You can also argue that minorities are more likely to have cells and not land lines but then again they too are already weighted on minority status and they vote more democrat.  

        So, IMO, pretty much a draw.

        •  I wanted to also add that I am a black, almost (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mdmslle

          middle-aged female and I have always owned a land line and a cell.  When I lived in Texas, I was never once polled, on either.

           I moved to Nevada ( a swing state) and in 2010 and this year, I have been polled numerous times on the land and the cell, and it is about equal in amount.

        •  my 83 year old dad has a land line. (0+ / 0-)

          what I'm saying is maybe in certain age groups yes. i'm not aware of the cell phone issue being about "poor". I do know that AA's are much more likely to have cell phones only. I'm not aware if that's a poverty issue or a racial difference, to be honest.

          and as far as the very rich, their homes usually do have a least a land line or VoIP line. When they aren't at home, their help is.

          For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

          by mdmslle on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 05:51:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Right. I am nearly 62 and I almost never (0+ / 0-)

      use my landline. I almost never answer it.

      For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

      by Anne Elk on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 09:12:52 AM PDT

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    •  It's an interesting thing, isn't it. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HudsonValleyMark

      I'm a few years older than you and also have no cell phone.

      So -- a million questions come to mind:

      Do you simply adjust to match young people on the assumption that most land-line free folks are young?

      Do you try to find out (somehow) if landline-free old folks are different from old folks with landlines?

      Do you assume that landline-less young folks are like landline using young folks?

      And -- given that your polling techniques exclude cell phones, exactly how are you going to get all this.

      The mind boggles.

      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

      by dinotrac on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 09:52:27 AM PDT

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      •  I'm too sleepy to link, but... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dinotrac

        Pew -- which does call cell phones -- has some great reports on this topic.

        Yes, if you don't call cell phones, then probably you weight your demographics to adult demographics -- which tacitly assumes, among other things, that cell-phone-only folks are more or less like landline folks with comparable demographics -- and hope for the best.

        Even if you call cell phones, you still weight to adult demographics, hoping that non-respondents are more or less like respondents with the same demographics.

        This is imperfect, but apparently not awful so far.

        Election protection: there's an app for that!
        Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

        by HudsonValleyMark on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 01:07:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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