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View Diary: On elections and 'likely voters' (180 comments)

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  •  What I like about listing both Registered and (1+ / 0-)
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    Likely breakdowns is that the eventual result most likely lies somewhere in between.  Likely voters mainly represent whose most interested right now.  By election day, quite a few more of those registered voters will turn into likely voters.

    •  Another good thing about RV and LV numbers (0+ / 0-)

          Is that when it's very close (like now), if the Republican candidate is ahead in the LV and the Democrat is ahead in the RV, there is a rhetorical point to be made that the leading candidate is not REALLY the people's choice.  

           This in turn may motivate more people to vote, because I think most people see it as unjust and undemocratic when they know a candidate has the real majority and yet is at risk of losing to the minority of "likely" voters.

           It's also a great motivator for GOTV, because even if your guy is behind in the LV, everyone can see that the needed votes are THERE in the RVs, and we just have to go out and get them.

           I suspect that if the media were to always report both LVs and RVs with every poll, this motivational effect would evaporate the LV/RV gap.  

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