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View Diary: On elections and 'likely voters' (180 comments)

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  •  LV screens seem more like playing darts (0+ / 0-)

    First off, thanks for the lesson of LV v. RV.

    I am thinking that the LV voter screen has more flaws in it that would make its outcomes highly suspect. I am not saying that it's corrupt, but it depends on a high degree of honesty and credibility from those polled. (I don't think half the public can be trusted with someone's lunch money!)

    It would be more credible to gauge the overall enthusiasm for a particular candidate in a given region then apply that against the polling of registered voters. But I wouldn't put a whole lot of value to this either. The lion's share of the polling should come from past elections on turnout. I would assume that given a few elections we could get a reasonable range on turnout based on what we gauge the enthusiasm to be at during that period.

    Where I am from in NH there are many people that consistently vote each year and there are those that pop up if there is a popular election at hand. So if we consider there to be a threshold enthusiasm level where these fairweather voters turnout we can then predict their behavior somewhat. It all comes down to the last day of the election. (BTW even the weather up here doesn't dissuade people from going to the polling booth!)

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 09:02:46 AM PDT

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