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View Diary: What if Romney's gains are mostly where it doesn't matter? (88 comments)

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  •  time will tell (5+ / 0-)
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    lgmcp, Supavash, doroma, bleeding blue, llywrch

    but I agree with BBB that mostly, Obama has fallen but staying pretty close to the steady state he's been in all summer, except for the convention bounce and better than average period that it lasted through September.

    We may be seeing, especially in the South and West some Republicans coming home, lifting Romney, tightening the margin, but not really changing the eventual outcome.

    I read the same Nate Silver post that Demi Moaned references, and the outlook is a lot gloomier than before the debate, but if you look at the lines on the charts, again it is more Obama returning to steady state and Romney gaining.  

    What we don't have yet is a good picture of independents strongly moving to Romney.  I think there is a good possibility on Romney's movement is the base coming home.   After all, watching a debate reminds them its a family loving white man against the black KenyanIslamoFacscistCommunist who isn't really an American.

     Some voters in non-swing states that aren't being bombarded with ads that show Romney on both sides of an issue may also not be picking up on the lies.  Lying Romney is a plausible moderate if you don't know anything.   The movement in swing states with lots of advertising has been less, which has been noted in several of the poll blogs.

    •  I just don't think it's all the debate though (1+ / 0-)
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      I think a LOT more people believe the Birther and Muslim crap than we realize plus I wonder how much damage the 2016 movie did?

      •  if we lose because of racism (1+ / 0-)
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        after four years and none of the craptastic predictions coming true,  it will be a terrible step backwards.  Further, Romney-Ryan will truly make the country worse off, so we lose doubly.

        We can't change the cards in the deck, but we can always play more skillfully.  The Obama campaign understands ground game and grass roots door knocking.  It will help.

      •  Or they are simply more AT EASE with a white Pres (0+ / 0-)

        They may think President Obama is a good and honorable man, but they simply "prefer" Romney because at a more subconscious level, it's all about racial identity. And even if Romney's policies concern them, they tell themselves that he will "moderate" the policies, because in the past this is what has always happened. They don't BELIEVE that the extreme right will get what they want. If God forbid Romney was elected, they'll have buyer's remorse, that's for sure.

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