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View Diary: What if Romney's gains are mostly where it doesn't matter? (88 comments)

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  •  Campaign now feels like 2004 reversed (1+ / 0-)
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    I can now see Obama winning 50-49-1, with ~290 EVs and massive struggle for OH. That would be a 'worst case' scenario pre-debate, but is now a disturbingly likely outcome.

    The good news is that even with Obama's fall, the Senate races still look pretty good. In a worst-case scenario, the Senate will be a firewall to any future Romney SC picks...

    ...gah hate myself for even thinking it! Forget what I just said, Obama WILL win.

    •  I can see the 2004 reversed scenario.... (2+ / 0-)
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      Berkeley Fred, Supavash

      ....especially if Obama does "good enough, but not great" in the last two debates (thus following GWB's footsteps on debate performances).

      HOWEVER, even in the deadlocked scenario,  if Obama carries Ohio,  I think he'll pick up a few other states and have more than a bare majority.  Probably NV, VA, IA, NH... Why do I think that?

      I just think that this is Obama's nadir and he's got nowhere to go but up, unless he completely immolates (in which case he loses by more than a hair).  Even if "up" is just back to the 1.5pt lead of the summer, he becomes favored in a lot of states.

      I guess if the race stays exactly where it seems to be today, it would be deadlocked with a good chance of "everything on Ohio".   But, I'd really rather not stay here.

      •  Agree 100% (1+ / 0-)
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        If OH is steady, WI should follow, along with IA.

        The polling for NH and VA seem all over the map, but they should go blue. Obama will have to make effort there, however.

        We have to keep making an effort for FL and NC, but in my heart of hearts I think the debate turned these states red.

        I personally find the shifts to Romney in NV and CO most alarming of all, but I also believe these states can be brought back into the fold.

        Like you said, the results in these states are not independent of each other, they will rise and fall on the performance of Obama in the next debates, and on GOTV.

        •  any particular reason you feel that way about FL? (0+ / 0-)

          NC always felt like a stretch to me this year.... (Obama won strongly in 2008 and NC was really close then.... I don't expect to win NC unless everything we've got the thing in the bag....)

          but why do you feel that way about FL? any reason why you think that the debate shut out our chances in FL?

          only thing that I can figure is some kind of race-based "they won't give him a second look" phenomenon. They were iffy about him to start, and then he falls apart and confirms their worst suspicions, and there's no way to get them back. I say it's race based 'cuz, well, that kind of "no second chances for you" thinking is a common form of racism, and it would explain a difference between FL/NC and the other battlegrounds.

          Then again, I pretty much pulled that out of my behind.

          •  Two things (1+ / 0-)
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            1) Voter suppression and outright fraud - FL is so important, and so in the clutches of Scott et al. This is the only state I think GOP dirty tricks will matter (assuming a close election)

            2) Muddled message on SS and Medicare - for some reason the Obama campaign can't seem to effectively discredit Romney / Ryan's lying on the issue. If Obama doesn't effectively hammer them in the next debate it might be too late.

            Mind you, I have no special knowledge or analysis, just based on what I read about the campaigns on Kos and elsewhere on the Internet. Call it being pessimistic/cautious/realist.

        •  why do people assume VA will go blue? (0+ / 0-)

          they have a hard right governor that everyone tells me is very popular. That says something.

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