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View Diary: Another option besides Nate Silver (40 comments)

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  •  Sigh (8+ / 0-)

    What is it about what Nate actually does that seems to be alluding people here today. Nate is not our poll analyst he is a poll analyst. He analizes using a math model. He plugs poll numbers into that model and out pop results. You don't like those results sorry, but to spin them to satisfy Obama supporters makes him about as credible as Rassmussen.

    Get a f'Ing grip

    The 47% also "pay all the taxes that are legally required and not a dollar more" but when Romney does it he thinks it's a virtue, while when they do it, he thinks they are deadbeats.

    by jsfox on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:12:41 PM PDT

    •  Right, it's why I wrote this dairy to give people (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dharmafarmer, keetz4, BusyinCA

      other options besides Nate Silver.

      •  Please (0+ / 0-)

        You wrote ... "not descrediting Nate" then proceed to do just that. You think Nate is some how spinning his analysis while not offering up a single piece of supporting evidence because his blog appears in the Times.

        The 47% also "pay all the taxes that are legally required and not a dollar more" but when Romney does it he thinks it's a virtue, while when they do it, he thinks they are deadbeats.

        by jsfox on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:25:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Why do people need another option? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jessical

        Nate's model is doing the same thing it was doing 3-4 weeks ago. Just because the polls soured on us, you think perhaps we need to find someone who tells us what we want to hear?

        I swore that a while ago, people used to consider this site a reality-based community...

        Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

        by Zutroy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 08:07:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Nate's results are only as good as (3+ / 0-)

      the poll information that he inputs. Case in point, right before the Repub Convention, Ras suddenly had a really good result for Obama. A surge which was not exactly shown in other polls. Some of us suggested it might be a setup for a big Romney convention bounce. Lo and behold, Ras showed a much larger bounce from the RNC than other pollsters. Maybe Ras was right and all other polls were wrong, but I rather doubt it. The Ras poll raised his average on 538 and changed the narrative from minimal/no Romney bounce to significant Romney bounce.

      Nate's method can be gamed. There's no doubt President Obama has really slipped in polling lately (so much for the theory that debates don't matter much). But I suspect that some of these sketchier pollsters are trying (and succeeding in part) in setting a Romney comeback narrative.

      •  I agree with you on this. (0+ / 0-)

        I recently spoke with someone about this just the other day.

      •  If this is true (0+ / 0-)

        then all poll analysis can be gamed including Princeton's. They are all working from the same set of input numbers.

        But I have to think if you believe the pollsters are skewing the polls more than their built in house effect then you really aren't much saner than the guy who puts out unscrewed polls.com

        The 47% also "pay all the taxes that are legally required and not a dollar more" but when Romney does it he thinks it's a virtue, while when they do it, he thinks they are deadbeats.

        by jsfox on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 06:46:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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