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View Diary: Ohio math: Willard must win non early votes by ???? (71 comments)

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  •  I've never read Nate mention preparing his model (1+ / 0-)
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    for that, so I don't know if it can deal with it.

    It would be doubly troubling, because that flood would move the mean to the right, and left-leaning and centrist polls would be weighted less as a result...

    But maybe there's a defense against built in against that.

    The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present

    by Inkin on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:01:57 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  it doesn't simply depend on the mean (1+ / 0-)
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      The basis for the comparison is a weighted average of the polls, with heavy emphasis given to a firm’s pollster rating in calculating its say in the consensus. Polling firms that we believe to produce more reliable results – based on their past performance and their methodological standards – have a lot more say in the calculation.

      In addition, in a new wrinkle in the model this year, the consensus is estimated solely from polling firms that include cellphones in their sample....


      So, that's some protection. Hard to tell how much.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 08:18:34 PM PDT

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