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• ##### The math, I think, is this: (0+ / 0-)

76% of the 19% who have voted already have voted for Obama.

Assuming that leaves 81% to vote (that is, assuming 19% is correct), then, to reach exactly 50%, we have

.76 * .19 + .81 x = 0.5
0.1444 + 0.81 x  = 0.5
0.81 x  = 0.5 - 0.1444
= 0.3556
x  = 0.3556/.81
= 0.439 (truncating)

Therefore, if Obama wins 44% of the remaining vote, he wins. If Romney wins 100-43% = 57% of the remaining vote, he wins. He doesn't need a 12% margin for the remaining vote; he needs 7%.

Well, 7% might as well be 5000% at this point for Romney. He's nowhere near that.

• ##### Or to be a little more precise ...(1+ / 0-)
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Supavash

... if Romney wins (100 - 43.8)% = 56.2% of the remaining vote, he wins. So Romney needs a little more than 6% of the remaining vote, assuming the figures of 76% and 19% are correct.

• ##### I mean, he needs a margin of ...(0+ / 0-)

... a little more than 6% of the remaining vote: he needs > 56.2 % .

A bit tired and ready to sleep here.

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