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View Diary: Ohio math: Willard must win non early votes by ???? (71 comments)

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  •  The math, I think, is this: (0+ / 0-)

    76% of the 19% who have voted already have voted for Obama.

    Assuming that leaves 81% to vote (that is, assuming 19% is correct), then, to reach exactly 50%, we have

    .76 * .19 + .81 x = 0.5
     0.1444 + 0.81 x  = 0.5
                   0.81 x  = 0.5 - 0.1444
                              = 0.3556
                          x  = 0.3556/.81
                              = 0.439 (truncating)

    Therefore, if Obama wins 44% of the remaining vote, he wins. If Romney wins 100-43% = 57% of the remaining vote, he wins. He doesn't need a 12% margin for the remaining vote; he needs 7%.

    Well, 7% might as well be 5000% at this point for Romney. He's nowhere near that.

    •  Or to be a little more precise ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash

      ... if Romney wins (100 - 43.8)% = 56.2% of the remaining vote, he wins. So Romney needs a little more than 6% of the remaining vote, assuming the figures of 76% and 19% are correct.

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