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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: A plateau for the 'Romney Bounce'? (365 comments)

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  •  It may well be much harder to compensate (3+ / 0-)
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    nycvisionary, MBishop1, itskevin

    for the absence of cell-phones at national level than at state level; I suspect that's a big part of the problem.

    •  Yeah, I had that thought too n/t (1+ / 0-)
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    •  These comments are exactly what are needed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      to address the issue carefully & figure out a good solution, rather than just issuing questionable national polls and allowing it to happen over and over again.


      Another possible problem, it occurs to me, is that the reliance on matching to party and demographics can break down if only a small proportion of "wacky" respondents provide bizarrely unpredictable data.

      If there are 1000 respondents, with data to predict 140 million voters, then only a handful of strange data (young, urban, registered Dem who reports being pro-Romney) can throw off a million or two predicted votes.

      Each respondent's data is used to predict the behavior of approximately 140,000 voters (1000*140,000 = 140 mill).

      Ok, so one "wacky" voter who switches positions can add 140,000 voters to one side and take 140,000 away from the other side: net effect for 1 poll respondent = 280,000 voters.

      At that rate, it wouldn't take too many demographically "unpredictable" voters to totally throw off the results in a way that standard weighting procedures couldn't deal with.

      And these few wacky voters might just be doing it on purpose, hacking the national poll, playing college pranks, etc.

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