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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/15 (morning edition) (390 comments)

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  •  No (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nimh, sulthernao, jncca

    Iowa will not be out of reach by election day.

    Early voting doesn't accomplish any such thing.

    Democrats always dominate early voting in Iowa, and Republicans then crush us in election-day voting to offset it.

    Early voting helps Dems, but only on the margins.

    The polling says Iowa is close, and it will stay that way these final 3 weeks.  We'll be chewing fingernails on election night regarding Iowa.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 07:37:17 AM PDT

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    •  the margin we win the early vote by does matter (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Davidsfr, askew, SaoMagnifico, bythesea

      and so does whether these early voters are habitual or sporadic/first-time.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 07:40:06 AM PDT

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    •  If the early voting results are close to 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      then it's reasonable to figure the end result will be also.

    •  Also among the reliable pollsters (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, askew, SaoMagnifico, itskevin

      Selzer last showed the state 49-45 Obama, and Marist/NBC had it 50-42. The Marist margin is almost certainly to high, but either of those results are more reliable than the slew of repub orgs spewing out poll results.

      •  Cyclone is going along with (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, The Caped Composer

        leaks of internal polling that have Iowa tied. Mitt's ridiculous and very public (and pointless) posturing against the Wind Tax credit, which is a huge new industry in Iowa, could end up making the difference in this election.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 08:09:14 AM PDT

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        •  One "insider" report (6+ / 0-)

          said the Romney camp was looking at the IA early numbers and considering giving up on the state. If it was really tied the early voting should look more like 2004 than 2008.

          •  That's a BFD right there (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            typo ink, Sylv

            Romney's campaign is considering giving up on Iowa? THAT, my friends, is a big fucking deal right there!

            Apologies for the foul language, by the way.

            "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

            by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 08:18:06 AM PDT

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          •  That report is silly (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, bjssp

            How exactly does romney win if he gives up in state that is this close and this cheap to work in?  I'll throw this one in with eports from earlier this month about romney giving up in Ohio.

            Quite simply Romney isn't giving up in any state that's even remotely competitive because he needs to win nearly all of them to win.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 08:24:11 AM PDT

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          •  Please link or at least cite... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            ...the source.

            I'm interested in this, I haven't seen any such thing.

            I'm not challenging you, I'm sincerely intrigued and want to see this.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 08:48:40 AM PDT

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            •  It was posted in one of these threads (0+ / 0-)

              and the source was someone named McDonald (or MacDonald) from George Mason University. Beyond that I would have to go looking, which I may do if time permits.

              •  That's Michael McDonald, and I doubt... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Zack from the SFV, jncca, lina

                ...he would be connected to any knowledge of the Romney campaign's thinking.

                He did a write-up I myself linked about early voting so far, and he might have thrown in naked speculation about whether Romney should continue in Iowa, I don't remember, but it wasn't any insider source.

                McDonald does great and valuable work on elections data, but he's an academic, he has no inside sources on anything.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 09:58:53 AM PDT

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          •  Well, we have no #'s on in-person voting (0+ / 0-)

            Iowa has very liberal early voting rules. A small group of voters can petition to get an early voting site set up anywhere. Lots of the mega-churches did this in 2010 and are doing so again this year, which is a plausible explanation for the vote-by-mail gap. So I'd like a more complete set of data before celebrating much.

            (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

            by TrueBlueDem on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 09:26:18 AM PDT

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        •  No, I'm not going with any such thing (5+ / 0-)

          I don't have any internal polling leaks that Iowa is tied.

          I'm challenging the notion that the state could be "put away" before election day.

          I don't question that Obama is ahead in Iowa and would win the state today.  I don't question that the Iowa Poll and Marist Poll reliably establish that point.

          And I don't question that if he wins by 1-2 points, early voting strategy will have decided the outcome.

          I just question the notion that we have any comfort in the state.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 08:51:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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