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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/15 (morning edition) (390 comments)

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  •  51-44 Obama, 50-39 Casey (2+ / 0-)
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    KingofSpades, ArkDem14

    These make sense.

    PPP has put out some polls recently that look just about right to me, I don't remember when was their last outlier.

    On the other hand, we now know their new weekly poll coming out tomorrow will be an outlier.  So they prove again they're not perfect.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 10:53:11 AM PDT

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    •  Or (0+ / 0-)

      Does the outlier prove their perfection?  it's 95% confidence right, so 1 out of every 20 should be an outlier.

      I forget my statistics classes (obviously), but if they never had an outlier we would need to be far more worried.

      I anticipate the impending panic.  I suggest Obama resign and let Biden be president for a few months.  Maybe America will enjoy the ride.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 10:56:36 AM PDT

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      •  Their outliers are more than 1 in 20 (0+ / 0-)

        They've had a lot of outliers this year, I think more than 1 in 20.  The most outrageous ones were earlier this year when they had Obama+13 in Colorado and +10 in Iowa, but there have been others.

        Their weekly poll, too, has been an outlier more than 1 out of 20 IMO.  Their numbers last week were a bad outlier in Obama job approval, way underwater at 43-53...everyone else has him net positive or very close to it.

        As I've said before they are the best robopoller by far, IMO because they follow some (not all) of the procedures campaign pollsters follow, which makes sense since PPP  actively seeks campaign clients.

        And although on paper their methodology should be worse than, say, Quinnipiac and Marist, at least PPP's state polls clearly are no worse than those in the toplines.  Q-poll and Marist have had plenty of their own crazy outliers.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 01:14:15 PM PDT

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