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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/15 (afternoon edition) (399 comments)

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  •  Regarding the national polls (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Skaje, askew, NMLib

    A lot of handwringing since the first debate about the national polls.

    I was very skeptical that Obama ever actually fell behind.

    And I'm skeptical that he's now bounced back.

    I think there's just been a lot of random noise coupled with some response bias.

    Look at Pollster now, their national chart has Obama up 281-206 in electoral votes with 57 still as tossups, and the popular vote chart has Obama up 47.4-46.5, after last week they had Obama down for awhile...you don't see that on the graph because the lines adjust for totality of polling over time, and a short-term Romney lead in the near past disappears under their statistical modeling.  But that accurately smooths out the graph to show reality:  yes there was tightening, but Obama hasn't really trailed.

    Not that this matters, ultimately the electoral college trumps all.  But while we've had slippage, Obama still is in charge of his own fate.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 07:27:41 PM PDT

    •  It's that Pew poll that freaked us out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone

      ABC and Battleground brought good news today. Little change from pre-debate, Obama slightly ahead, and importantly, at 50% approval among LV.

      As far as Ras and Gallup. Obama at 49% approval in Ras, down one point against Romney. He has had worse numbers than that in Ras during the summer. Similar thing with Gallup. We are worried about the new LV model, but Obama was 49-46 in the RV pre-debate. And again, both his RV numbers and approvals were worse in the summer.

      It's that big swing in the well respected Pew poll that freaked everybody out.

      And I guess tomorrow there will be hand wringing about PPP.

      •  The Pew poll really shouldn't have (0+ / 0-)

        I mean honestly, it was so clearly an outlier (especially given just how large the swing was) that the fact that people were freaking out was more based on inability to look at the poll objectively and just calm down and wait some time.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:28:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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