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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney's best numbers of the week (370 comments)

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  •  You misinterpret the Rand Poll (4+ / 0-)

    The Rand Poll does take account of "maybe voters"and people who drop in and out of the electorate for one reason or another.  It just does it differently than other polls, not by having a screen of whether you are a likely voter or not, but by asking people the probability they will vote.

    The poll takes account of sampling error which is what the grey zone considers.

    Where the poll is not representative of the population is that by virtue of being polled once a week respondents are likely to pay more attention to what is happening in the race than a comparable sample who is not being polled once every week.

    My hypothesis is that the Rand poll is a leading indicator of what is likely to be picked up by other voters and other polls later.  Note for example that in the Rand Poll Romney's comeback started September 27, a week before the first debate.  What seems to have happened is that Romney shifted tactics from supporting the Republican agenda to paining himself as a moderate- but this did not really become clear to most people until the first debate.

    •  Yeah, that's an unproven method. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sebastianguy99

      That's why I say this is all experimental and we will see.

      I don't know how being asked over and over again about the likeliness affects the actual likeliness to vote. The vast majority of the electorate isn't experiencing such things. I am not convinced it, or any poll, can possibly take account of all the reasons a person may drop in and out of the electorate. Simply asking them "are you gonna vote" is pretty direct. Asking it week after week after week? I dunno.

      It is possible past voting behavior is a better gauge. But I don't know.

       

      My hypothesis is that the Rand poll is a leading indicator of what is likely to be picked up by other voters and other polls later.  Note for example that in the Rand Poll Romney's comeback started September 27, a week before the first debate.  What seems to have happened is that Romney shifted tactics from supporting the Republican agenda to paining himself as a moderate- but this did not really become clear to most people until the first debate.
      This could be true.

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