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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/16 (morning edition) (362 comments)

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  •  NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart memo on the race (9+ / 0-)

    From this mornings First Read, its about 4 pages but worth a read.


    “Is Obama OK?” That is the single question I am asked most often.  And the answer
    I give is not a definitive yes, but a qualified yes, because this election is still in his
    control to win.
    Before turning to the focus group findings, let me caution that reading the public
    polls has become both more complicated and sophisticated because of the different
    methodologies employed by the different polling firms.  My advice is to look at the
    methodology before evaluating any number’s importance. If a poll is done using
    instant dialers with no human communications, be suspect.  If a poll does not have
    a cell-phone-only component to its sample, be suspicious.  If a poll shows great
    variation by party identification from the firm’s standard work, don’t jump to
    conclusions.  If a firm avoids those pitfalls, then the poll has merit, however, one
    must remain mindful: there are a lot of polls, and the vat of averaged polls (Real
    Clear Politics) gives equal weight to the frauds and the pros.  In making wine, this
    approach would be rejected, but it is lauded in selecting a president. As we say,
    each to their own taste.
    He also analyzes the focus group which is interesting. All in all a really interesting read.

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