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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/16 (morning edition) (362 comments)

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  •  Then maybe the polls are off. (5+ / 0-)

    It's possible I am wrong and the polls are right, but there are plenty of reasons to think the polling is off in some way. After all, just imagine if Obama were up by another point or two in some of these polls. It's entirely possible for an otherwise good firm to have an odd result that makes the numbers slightly off--as in, by a point or two. If that were the case, Obama would look like he were in much better shape, without anything really being all that different in the polls.

    Also, ask yourself this: what has changed so much about the campaign's habits? Is Obama suddenly scheduling trips to Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania, and the suburbs of Detroit? Is Romney pushing money into the Philly suburbs? No. He's still fighting like a dog in Ohio, which would indicate that, whatever some allegedly top Democrat told Mark Halperin, he's still down or at least far from solid. And in the other battlegrounds, it's much the same as it was before the debate.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 08:48:22 AM PDT

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    •  Romney is still fighting like a dog (8+ / 0-)

      in North Carolina.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 08:56:28 AM PDT

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      •  New Crossroads attack ad... (6+ / 0-)

        ...against Obama is airing there.

        So the state is still close, and still one Obama could win.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:02:40 AM PDT

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        •  By the way, DCCyclone, I saw pro-Altschuler (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, ArkDem14, bumiputera, MichaelNY

          ads against Tim Bishop from the NRCC last night. A few of them, in fact, in addition to the ones from outside groups.

          And boy are these ads a doozy! See the ad here. You've gotta love, in a sick way, how they manage to act like he's hiding something because he refers to himself as "I." What is he supposed to do, refer to himself in the third person?

          You've also gotta love that the pro-Altschuler ads are talking about how some papers--including Newsday and that paragon of journalism, the New York Post--were supposedly calling for investigations. Unless I missed something, Newsday itself didn't call for anything, but merely described how a Suffolk politician, a Conservative (Party member?)former Suffolk County Police Commissioner and Chief Investigator of the Suffolk County District Attorney’s Office, Bob Creighton, called for an investigation--which, by the way, Bishop himself has said he welcomes. And as for the Post, who gives a rat's ass what it says?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:20:12 AM PDT

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    •  I think quite a few bad polls have been wrong (5+ / 0-)

      I don't think Obama has ever really trailed in the national popular vote on any day.  The Pollster chart supports my point.

      I think there was some response bias last week.

      And I think we're still OK, simply back to pre-convention status.

      And finally I think Obama will do fine tonight, and everyone will breathe a sigh of relief.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:04:29 AM PDT

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      •  I'm a little anxious about tonight. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Romney was preparing for the debates for months, and he's good at them. Obama apparently felt he was too good to bother with any of that. Can't turn that around in a few days of cramming.

        Plus a bad first debate has the potential to set up an overcorrection in the second one. Remember Gore in 2000?

        On the other hand, I doubt it will have much effect on the race. Romney did his damage in the first debate; there's not much room for him to gain from there.

        •  I am not sure I will watch it at all. (0+ / 0-)

          I might do something else and watch the reactions on MSNBC afterwards. I watched the first debate, which sucked for our side; I didn't watch the second (counting the VP debate as the second out of four overall), and it went well for our side. You tell me whether I am being a little too nutty for my own good. ;]

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:40:16 AM PDT

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      •  Well certainly he never fell behind with RVs (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but enough reliable LV polls showed Romney with a slight lead that I am inclined to believe the national popular vote among LVs is statistically tied, and Romney may have a slight edge.

        But there are some major questions regarding why the advantage goes from Obama to Romney in RVs to LVs while Obama holds big leads in polls of people who have already voted.

    •  The other thing I keep noting (6+ / 0-)

      is Obama's approval around 49-50 in most LV polls. Hard to see how he, or any incumbent president, loses if that holds.

      •  Yup, I think the same (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That, plus Obama continues to run very close to Romney on managing the economy, and right track/wrong track numbers continue to stay elevated compared to anytime in the previous 3 years.

        All this is post-debate.

        There has been ballot test slippage, to be sure, as it's turned out Romney helping his own image with one good night has so far outweighed the above.

        But still I think Obama would win the national popular vote on the above factors.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:54:31 AM PDT

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