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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/16 (morning edition) (362 comments)

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  •  Well, (0+ / 0-)

    it's a different situation, because Long is not nearly as credible as Smith is and New York is far more Democratic than Pennsylvania is, but Gillibrand has only recently started running ads.

    Being relentlessly nervous and paranoid about a lot of things, I can't see myself acting in the same way as Casey if I were in his positon. But Obama's been leading for some time. Unless I missing something, Casey himself has also been leading. He's not broke--far from it, in fact--so if he needs to make up for lost time in the final weeks, he can do it.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:38:21 AM PDT

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    •   Who compared Casey to Gillibrand? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:41:50 AM PDT

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      •  I did. (0+ / 0-)

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:52:13 AM PDT

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        •  No, I mean (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          You seemed to be rebutting the idea of a comparison, which I don't understand. Please elaborate.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:56:23 AM PDT

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      •  My point in doing so, by the way, (0+ / 0-)

        was to say that it might not be unusual for people that are, by any reasonable definition, heavily favored to wait until late in the game. It's far easier to imagine Gillibrand doing so than Casey, given how it's more likely for Smith to be elected than it is for Long to be, but it's not as if this race was expected to be a tossup, like Tester and Rehberg's or Kaine and Allen's.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 09:53:59 AM PDT

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        •  menendez is probably the best comparison (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, MichaelNY

          Since NJ is close to PA and pretty strong Dem-leaning.

          But Menendez is airing more ads in Philly, and they actually feature him talking about things he's done, not a bunch of idiot anti-tea party ads.  

          Menendez is running a good "up by 15 and not really threatened" campaign, Casey ain't :-(

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 10:09:43 AM PDT

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          •  So you think Casey is in trouble? (0+ / 0-)

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 10:27:36 AM PDT

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            •  Nah (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              50% is a bridge too far for Smith, especially figuring casey gets about 400K votes more in Philly alone.

              He's fine, but in an off-year election against even the unpopular Corbett it'd be 50/50, especially with him running this type of campaign.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 10:29:58 AM PDT

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              •  How did he run in 2006? (0+ / 0-)

                I have no idea if he wants to be governor, but if he does, is it crazy to expect him to not run a half-assed campaign?

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 11:39:03 AM PDT

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                •  Well (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I'd say 2006 was a decently pro-Dem year, Santorum was overplaying his conservative-ness and Casey was able to waltz through.

                  Here's how I think his 2 races aren't comparable, he's likely to win by less against an unknown first-timer than he is when unseating an incumbent even as the state has moved to the left (slightly) over that time.  That shouldn't be happening.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:07:13 PM PDT

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