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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/16 (afternoon edition) (334 comments)

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  •  Today is just going to be lousy... (7+ / 0-)

    Until the debate. And if the debate is lousy, it's going to be really lousy.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:21:50 PM PDT

    •  I've been nervous all day. (10+ / 0-)

      Lasting the next 5 1/2 hours is gonna be a killer.  I prayed like all night until I went to sleep that Obama does better than Romney tonight.  Today I prayed that Romney accidentally let loose a loud fart during the debate for all to hear.  Hopefully God doesn't count that against me.

      •  I'm not watching (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Paleo, LordMike, EcosseNJ, sapelcovits

        I'll log onto Political Wire in the morning. Taegan is usually a good judge.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:27:38 PM PDT

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        •  i wish i could do that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          but there's no way I could sleep without knowing. i'm probably not going to be able to sleep regardless of how the debate does though

        •  I'll be half watching. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          The TV isn't in the same room as my computer, so I'll be running back and forth from the TV to DK.  If it starts going badly, though... I'm turning the TV off, and taking out my secret bottle of vodka from my closet.  (My parents are evangelical conservative teetotalers, so I have to hide it.)

        •  I'm not, either. (0+ / 0-)

          But that's mostly because I feel like I have a reverse Midas touch with all of these things. That's one reason why I haven't given much of anything to our congressional candidates and probably won't give a lot to Obama for the rest of the campaign.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:41:50 PM PDT

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        •  I'll definitely watch (0+ / 0-)

          But I will probably watch the Yankees-Tigers game live and watch the debate later on c-span.org, like I did with the first debate.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:06:58 PM PDT

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      •  Passing gas wouldn't change much (6+ / 0-)

        In fact, it might help him seem like a real person.

        The thing to hope for is the he freezes up like Judy Biggert did in her debate. Better yet, like Jason Plummer or Jan Brewer.

        26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:32:38 PM PDT

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      •  I hear you (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MBishop1

        For me, mostly brought on by the general reaction to the Kos/PPP national number. I felt quite good last night, the numbers had been upticking, but this was a bit of an initial mental kicking, but a bit of time studying the internals calmed me down... 44-16 Con/Lib Id? But yeah generally, just a strange flat feeling all round today. That and the drawn out, slowest month ever sensation...

        I was checking out Florida at RCP and jeez look... taking out the dipshit from the R leaners that make up six of the eight polls since debate #1 we are left with PPP and NBC/Marist and they have it R+1 and O+1 respectively... Has there ever been an election where so many of the national pollsters swing so obviously for one team? Like many I'd imagine, I just want to see some better quality polling in IA, NH & NV than the so-so crap we are getting from the usual suspects.

        Funny now, how OH may have replaced CO as a part of "the midwest firewall"

        "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

        by EcosseNJ on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:51:21 PM PDT

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    •  Not really terrible or great news on balance today (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat

      but yeah this sucks.  I'm not going to have any fingernails left...

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:28:05 PM PDT

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    •  I would put it this way (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat

      If Obama is lousy, tonight will be lousyindeed.
      But if Obama is good and the pundits still try and manage to make it a draw (see last week's debate) then it is going to be REALLY lousy. Much worse for me.
      Because I can take my candidate losing because he is making mistakes (because he can always un-make them, as Republicans have learned with Romney).
      But if the media are so wedded to the new narrative that even when he is good, it can't get through, then I am gonna despair.

      •  i hate to say it (3+ / 0-)

        but I think your REALLY lousy scenario is the most likely one. The media will acknowledge that Obama did better but then say that Romney won because he "appeared credible."

        •  The MSM is in the tank for Romney (0+ / 0-)

          Let's face it...we saw this during the Wisconsin Recalls with the Wisconsin MSM being in the tank for Scott Walker, and it's happening again with the National MSM being in the tank for Mitt Romney.

          "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

          by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:39:22 PM PDT

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        •  Indeed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer

          Hence my comment.
          I have been preaching for several days that it won't be enough for Obama to simply be better because frankly, considering the way ppl remember the first debate (a bit unfairly but too late to kvetch about that now), it is pretty much baked in the cake in terms of media expectations that he will be better tonight.
          We actually need Romney to either suck (I doubt it) or say something really callous. Since part of his move in the polls seems to be because ppl "realized" he was not the caricature from the Obama campaign ads, we actually need him to say something that will bring all that back to the fore.
          I would be surprised if he was bad. He is too disciplined for that. He never has been bad at a debate. But he has made plenty of gaffes. That's the only way the media will treat this as a clear Obama win and, let's face it, it is highly unlikely unless Obama has been prepped to rattle him and trap him. And the format does not lend itself to that.
          I don't think tonight will be the circuit-breaker we need. But at least it should get some Democrats back in the LV screen. That's my positive spin.

          •  Wouldn't the logical thing be the other way round? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            madmojo, MichaelNY
            because frankly, considering the way ppl remember the first debate (a bit unfairly but too late to kvetch about that now), it is pretty much baked in the cake in terms of media expectations that he will be better tonight.
            That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Wouldn't the other way round be more logical? Part of why he was seen to have failed so badly last time was because people were expecting him to do pretty well, and weren't expecting much from Romney. So there was a big surprise factor at work.

            But this time round, Obama set the bar pretty low for himself. People think he really sucked last time, so it should be easy for him to outdo expectations this time. Vice versa, people now think Romney's pretty good at this kind of thing, so anything less than a clear win will be seen as meh.

        •  yeah, I've said before, for all the talk of (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          liberal media, the media loves moderate Republicans. The only reason Jon Huntsman was in the race or the short time he was, was because of the media.

          And now the GOP base seems okay with a moderate Republican too.

    •  And if the debate is great (10+ / 0-)

      then it's going to be really great.

      I just thought I would throw in the optimistic option. :)

      •  Me, too! (8+ / 0-)

        So Obama fucked up the first debate. As Rachel Maddow pointed out a couple days later, incumbent Presidents usually do. And while that gave Romney a political life preserver, it hasn't caused him to overpower Obama on the Electoral College Map.

        IMHO Biden stopped the bleeding last Thursday, and perhaps the good economic data flowing in recently have also helped Obama recover in the last few days. So all Obama needs to do tonight is hold his own and point out Romney's two-faced mendacity.

        At least Axelrod & Co. realized Obama fucked up last week, and it looks like they've prepped him to do better tonight.

        •  I hope Obama kicks Romney's teeth in tonight! (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          atdnext, JBraden

          "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

          by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:36:02 PM PDT

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        •  Sorry (6+ / 0-)

          But I will die repeating Obama did not fuck up at the first debate.
          He was listless and crucially Romney was very good. But watching this myth take hold so fast has been infuriating.
          There was nothing terrible about his performance. It just was not very interesting or memorable but it particularly looked bad next to Romney's engaging one. But by all objective criteria it was not anywhere near the catastrophe everybody now says it is.
          And btw if you reread Twitter and blogs during the debate, NOONE - including the pundits that went hysterical once it was done - identified the debate as going badly for Obama. It was once it was all done that the snowball effect started.

          •  It was totally expectations (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, BeloitDem

            Romney was better than people thought he would be and Obama worse but neither was amazing or amazingly bad. I do wonder if it was the CNN snap poll that did it. The extent I mean. Because I thought Romney edged it but not by that margin.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:51:27 PM PDT

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            •  I think it was (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tk421, LordMike, askew

              I actually it was the MSNBC crew that emboldened the MSM to go apeshit in turn.
              Because as you said, it was expectations that made people - including Obama supporters - tell CNN Romney had won. Heck I probably would said so myself (and notice how Dems have a structural disadvantage here since even when they lose Republicans says their candidate won, while Dems are more willing to admit they lost which means the choice is between instant polls showing a partisan draw or a Republican landslide).
              But then it snowballed into OBAMA SUCKED SO MUCH !!!!!CATASTROPHE!!!!!
              And THAT is what I think had the impact on the polls. Not Obama's performance that had nothing memorably about it (neither positive, nor negative) but the coverage of it as Obama had been crushed, ROmney was fantastic and not what the ads said,and so on

          •  debate (9+ / 0-)

            Obama didn't do anything especially bad, but he came off as unenthusiastic and he missed a bunch of opportunities to nail Romney on his BS. The first problem is easily fixed and will probably get his poll numbers back up some, but the second is harder to address in a town hall format than in a conventional debate.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:58:12 PM PDT

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            •  Seconded (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 01:00:54 PM PDT

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            •  There's some thinking that says (0+ / 0-)

              it's essentially impossible to call one side out effectively on this stuff, and particularly during any debate, because voters don't like when you call your opponent a liar and they are easily confused by the almost guaranteed push back of more faulty numbers and misdirection. I think there's a lot to that, although I don't think it's impossible. I suspect it requires a lot of unification around a theme about a candidate.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 01:04:01 PM PDT

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              •  Biden called out the other side (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                calvinshobbes

                And do you remember what I said the president could have said?

                "It's really interesting debating Mitt Romney's body double here tonight, because for the entire campaign, Mitt Romney has advocated cutting taxes for the wealthiest [etc., etc. - short list], and the man standing here tonight denies supporting any of this. So either this man is Mitt Romney's body double, or the real Mitt Romney says one thing in private to his wealthy contributors, another to partisan crowds in the Republican primaries and at campaign events, and a completely different thing to all of you watching us on TV tonight."

                He could have said it with a smile, and it would have completely changed the reaction to the debate.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:20:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  There are any number of ways Obama could (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, LordMike

                  fight back against Romney's nonsense. He's not a dumb guy in any way and he is certainly eloquent. He also has the facts on his side.

                  The problem is that it's not clear whether it would be effective. Romney's claim that six studies have backed him up should be in the running for the lie of the year, if only because some of the "studies" are op/eds and blog posts. And of course, the numbers don't come close to adding up.

                  Romney does not have any leg to stand on here intellectually or factually, yet it's quite likely that he say something that is shady or even downright dishonest, even something with numbers, and say it all with a smile, while all of the people watching don't develop a firm opinion one way or the other. If they instead assume it's too confusing or that all politicians lie, what good does that do us? Where do we end up?

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:48:51 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The problem is that he didn't try hard enough (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BeloitDem

                    You can't fight lies with nothing. And the thing is, he tried to debunk some lies but didn't address Romney's chameleon-like aspect of negating core campaign planks suddenly.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:57:25 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I guess that's true. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 04:44:17 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

        •  I hope Obama takes that SOB head off! (0+ / 0-)

          and I could care less if some ppl on here think what I said is way to much.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 01:38:43 PM PDT

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    •  US World Cup qualifier they have to win (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      uclabruin18, wu ming

      Isnt helping my anxiety level either.

    •  I'm watching The Descendents (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bumiputera, The Caped Composer

      Haven't seen that one.

      People who want to watch Dancing With the Candidates, you're on your own.

      And for people who vote based on who they think won DWTC, you have my contempt.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:34:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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