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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/16 (afternoon edition) (334 comments)

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  •  Tierney for Ruiz? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, MichaelNY

    It looks like that just might happen. Where does this bring everyone's projections to?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:43:06 PM PDT

    •  I have 199D, 220R, 16Tossup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, MichaelNY

      28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:48:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I still have the Ruiz-Mack race as tossup (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, MichaelNY

        but tilt blue.

        28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

        by bumiputera on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:49:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  ... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          I was badly burned by this thinking in 2010, but given the actual results from that year, the headwinds Republicans will be facing in blue states, and the fact that I still expect Obama to win big, I am expecting a few surprises on election night.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:54:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're still expecting Obama to win big? (0+ / 0-)

            That's very optimistic at this point. It could happen, but I think it would be advisable to wait at least until the polling results from tonight's debate come in. Which probably means next week.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 03:33:42 PM PDT

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      •  I'm at about 204D, 13 tossups. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, MichaelNY, redrelic17

        Just out of reach.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:50:58 PM PDT

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      •  If you had to pick (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        any sort of races that look secure for Republicans but wouldn't be earth shatteringly shocking to us if we won, which would they be? I'd guess I'd start with Tierney and include people like Graves, Yoder, and a few in Wisconsin.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 02:53:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The races seen as "lean R" or better (4+ / 0-)

          That I would be least surprised flipping are.

          FL-02 (Southerland) - Lawson seems to be running stronger than expected.

          FL-10 (Webster) - Val Demmings is a great candidate and has been a workhorse.  It's still going to be hard to overcome the tough GOP-lean of the district.  

          CA-21 (Open) and CA-36 (Bono-Mack) - I'm starting to get the feeling California will end up being a goldmine for Dems in the house.

          MI-03 (Amash) - The GOP-lean of the district is VERY hard to overcome, but Amash seems to be a guy nobody likes.

          MT-AL (Open) - We seem to be down by mid-high single-digits but with a lot of undecides.  Could be a surprise here.

          IN-08 (Bucshon)

          IA-04 (King) - Good recruit, redrawn district, nutty incumbant, who knows.

          GA-12 - It's actually Dem-held but pretty much everyone has it at Leans R.  Wouldn't shock me if Barrow eeked out another tight win.

    •  I have 223 GOP, 189 Dem, 23 tossups (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ... I think.

      If we assume Bono Mack loses, that would change it to 223 GOP, 190 Dem, 22 tossups.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 04:01:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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