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View Diary: Why Obama is ahead, and by more than you think (96 comments)

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  •  Gravis was exposed here by diarist AnetteK (7+ / 0-)

    "The human eye is a wonderful device. With a little effort, it can fail to see even the most glaring injustice." Richard K. Morgan

    by sceptical observer on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 03:42:24 PM PDT

    •  One of the things I do is to (3+ / 0-)

      read long in to comments in certain places. Intrade is one of them.

      Imagine my surprise when I saw this today in the forum at Intrade.

      I am the author of the material at DU and offer two comments;

      1) Regarding the Colorado poll showing advantage to Obama.

      Just two days before this poll Gravis Marketing had an earlier poll that showed Romney not only ahead but leading with African Americans. In order to cover up this obvious error they quickly issued a new poll showing Obama ahead.

      2) If you are givng any weight to Gravis in making your Intrade decisions, don't.

      We have a great deal more information about Kaplan and his decade involvement in various fraudulent activities by Kaplan as well as other known assoicates. The volume is so great that it is taking some time to completely digest. It will remove any doubt, even among those that welcome Gravis Marketing's numbers for Romney that the people behind Gravis are not pollsters and have some other motive.

      I will point this out. If you go to the DU threads about Gravis we have a recording of Douglas Kaplan discussing a wide variety of polls he has conducted on Russia Government English language station in January. In the months before this Kaplan has hundreds of tweets following the minute day by day details of the Casey Anthony trial until suddenly he announces Gravis Marketing. An odd use of time for somebody launching a national polling firm.

      At some point during this time he also registers a Super Pac to get in the big political gold rush. No money is received into the SuperPac. Is anyone familiar with any other pollster that registered a SuperPac?

      Seven months later Gravis starts publish poll material, even though he discussed it in January on Russian Radio.

      Those first polls were published approximately 70 days ago.

      I give fair warning to any Intrade investor that within a week Douglas Kaplan will be laughed out of the polling world.  
      Hubris goes before the fall, humility goes before victory.  

      Putting it out here without comment.

      Ron Reagan: "Sarah Palin's constituency are people who wear red rubber noses and bells on their shoes."

      by AnnetteK on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 04:41:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It would have been great to get a screen (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sceptical observer, AnnetteK

        capture of that one poll.

        But really, it is absurd they are being included.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 05:22:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Think Hopefruit had it, (0+ / 0-)

          She posted a comment in my diary and she had posted it when it happened too.

          Ron Reagan: "Sarah Palin's constituency are people who wear red rubber noses and bells on their shoes."

          by AnnetteK on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 05:34:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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