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View Diary: Why Obama is ahead, and by more than you think (96 comments)

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  •  I was skeptical on reading the title, but (7+ / 0-)

    the diary is very sophisticated. For what it is worth I have a PH.D. In Poli Sci and studied statistics at the grad school level. I remain a little nervous, but think we are avout 65-35 in odds to win. A decent debate that our Republican leading media are forced to call a tie or much more even or some such will reassure me a lot, especially with foreign policy debate to come wherein Romney is a complete idiot on his best days. Too bad he, like Bush before him, will not be required to find countries on a map and name their leaders and capital cities.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 04:01:47 PM PDT

    •  It's odd that 63-37 or so is the widespread (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, global citizen

      odds everywhere. On the prognostication websites, on the betting markets, anecdotally...

      It's just seems about right.

      The problem is, 37% is metaphysically within striking distance of 50/50.

      And that is a terrifying thought.

    •  Make no mistake (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, global citizen

      I am nervous as hell too.  People underestimate all types of volatility, and particularly political volatility.

      Thank you for the comment, though.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 05:35:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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