Skip to main content

View Diary: Why Obama is ahead, and by more than you think (96 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  I'm not saying just one. (0+ / 0-)

    There's also Huffpo. And Sam Wang's stuff is also useful. He provides a tool for putting in correlated shifts by hand. I'm just saying that there are a ton of these posts floating around on various sites- some combinations of cherry-picking, statistical errors, etc. If there were more than two or three good ones, that would be great, but re-inventing the wheel isn't working well.

    One advantage of having more would be that we could say combine the edit feature of some sites with the weighted aggregation feature of 538 and Huffpo to, say, just leave out Gravis. I think that would slightly shift CO red, maybe very slightly aso FL, shift NC less red, and shift OH bluer.

    But there's no point in doing probability calculations assuming independence, when that isn't close to true.

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 05:33:56 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site