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  •  (sputter) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FG
    "Ah," but you say, "What about 2006 and 2008?" Collier's answer is that there is plenty of reason to suspect extensive red-shifting even in these elections
    Nu?

    I read Collier's piece; it's not as if you're really leaving anything out here. What is this plenty of reason? She doesn't say. That's remarkable.

    But maybe the biggest threat of all to clean elections is the way that Democrats and left-leaning media are letting the criminals get away with it, without so much as a peep of protest.
    I'd love to see more focus on election problems. But I don't understand how unsupported allegations of extensive fraud are supposed to help.

    (I would guess that Collier is relying on Jonathan Simon. Bad choice.)

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    by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 04:09:01 PM PDT

    •  But she DOES say... (1+ / 0-)
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      Judge Moonbox

      Briefly, she says that the big Democratic wins of 2006 and 2008 were not due to lack of election fraud, but rather to huge changes in Republican vote totals thanks to disenchantment of the Republican in light of the Florida Congressman Tim Foley scandal and ultimate wide-ranging disgust at the Bush administration.

      A closed mind believes the future and the present will be the same, attempting to counteract an underlying fear that the future will be worse than the present, which inhibits the tendency to question at all. (Paraphrasing "A Course in Miracles.")

      by ceebee7 on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 04:42:08 PM PDT

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      •  no, that isn't addressing the central question (1+ / 0-)
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        FG

        The question is: where is the evidence of what she calls "extensive red-shift rigging" in 2006 and 2008? Lest there be any confusion, she defines red shift as "the statistically anomalous shifting of votes to the conservative right."

        I'm surprised that I have to point out that that is the question. Maybe the "red-shifting" jargon got in the way.

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        by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 05:23:30 PM PDT

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        •  Don't know Jonathan Simon, or (0+ / 0-)

          EDA, except I checked out the website... You're asserting he's not credible?  Just asking...

          A closed mind believes the future and the present will be the same, attempting to counteract an underlying fear that the future will be worse than the present, which inhibits the tendency to question at all. (Paraphrasing "A Course in Miracles.")

          by ceebee7 on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 02:55:51 AM PDT

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          •  well, I think he is horribly wrong (0+ / 0-)

            Umm, OK, yes, I think he isn't credible. That is to say, when I think of the smartest people I know who do quantitative political analysis, I don't think any of them takes him at all seriously. He is smart and articulate, but his arguments tend to rest on implausible assumptions.

            Here is some early discussion of "Landslide Denied." I wrote a whole little paper about it, if you're curious.

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            by HudsonValleyMark on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 09:29:26 AM PDT

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            •  actually... (0+ / 0-)

              that's a vintage example of Daily Kos "discussion" on election fraud.

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              by HudsonValleyMark on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 09:39:56 AM PDT

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              •  Thanks for the link -- I read it. (0+ / 0-)

                A. Your "now that's just sick" comment cracked me up.

                B. In initiating my response to your (and Febble's) comments (on this and another thread), I realized after reading some of your and her previous comments that I was way out of my league in trying to represent realistic data re the 2004 election results.  I read some of your other work (and Febble's in your supplied link, above) and I am greatly relieved that the Collier story seems to be -- as you suggest -- largely relying on EDA/Jonathan Simon's postings and therefore not a cause for great concern.  I have not done any research on Simon as yet; you, OTOH, seem to know what you're doing, as your diaries seem to focus mainly on this issue, and your teaming up at various levels with Febble would seem to stand you in good stead.  I always bow to experts in their fields.

                My purpose in bringing Collier's work to a larger audience was not to try to trumpet my data analysis expertise, which is nil, but to alert Kossacks as to possible election tampering, which is certainly not chicken little territory, especially this election season.

                Hence, in retrospect, I was a little surprised that a magazine with Harper's reputation ran this article.

                I was not previously aware of your postings, but will become a follower now, as I was greatly impressed by not only your apparent knowledge of this subject, but the even-handed way you responded to your critics in the comments posted, as well as your avoidance of hysterics, which have become a little too predominant on dKos.  I myself do admit to having a tendency to embrace an "if it walks like a duck..." philosophy in formulating opinions, as opposed to sticking religiously to hard data, conscientiously mined and analyzed.  For example, I am now absolutely convinced that the current story regarding Virginia voter registrations being found tossed into a dumpster by a third-party voter registration firm employee, tied to Nathan Sproul and his discredited Strategic Alliance firm, will ultimately lead back to the shenanigans of Karl Rove and his Crossroads PAC, if someone is willing and able to do the legwork.

                Mostly, as mentioned, I am relieved that the fear of corporate manipulation of vote counts by Republican software company owners does not seem something to rationally invoke paranoia of another election being stolen, at least not in that particular way.

                And thanks for your response.

                A closed mind believes the future and the present will be the same, attempting to counteract an underlying fear that the future will be worse than the present, which inhibits the tendency to question at all. (Paraphrasing "A Course in Miracles.")

                by ceebee7 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 01:40:58 AM PDT

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                •  I didn't see this comment until now (1+ / 0-)
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                  ceebee7

                  Thanks for the courtesy. Please don't "bow," but I appreciate the recognition that we've thought hard about this and we try to get things right. (Febble and I have worked together on some projects, but of course mostly we're in entirely different fields, with just enough overlap to make for more interesting conversations.)

                  I wish that people thought more about potential election tampering and all kinds of other election problems. Sometimes it seems that panic is our only attention mode. I think DKos is doing better this year in sustained, thoughtful, non-hysterical attention to voter suppression; maybe we can build on that.

                  I have no idea where the Sproul story leads. It's not as if Karl Rove has a monopoly on dirty tricks. But I hope we find out how far the fraud extends and who is responsible.

                  Election protection: there's an app for that!
                  Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

                  by HudsonValleyMark on Sat Oct 20, 2012 at 06:06:54 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

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