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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Tommy Thompson starts—or maybe stops—hearing things (126 comments)

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  •  We'll see (0+ / 0-)

    I hope the Grove poll released yesterday has Senate numbers. That is probably closer to the actual result. Also remember final polls for Reid were about 7-8 points off the final result.

    •  True, but its a bad sign (7+ / 0-)

      if you are hanging your hopes off the polling being off (even if there's a decent excuse for why it might be).

      •  Nevada an exception (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, PALiberal1, askew

        and Ralston's analysis in 2010 bears that out, he claimed the polling was way off then and was proven right. It was like that in 2008 too.

        •  He's not saying that about NV-Sen (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          Granted, he grinds an axe against Berkley, and that's part of his mentality in this race, but if he was hearing that Berkley looks as likely to win as to lose, or very close to it, he'd be saying it.

          He's been forthcoming only about Obama being a clear favorite, not about Berkley's chances.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 06:48:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I thought he said based on registration numbers (0+ / 0-)

            he doesn't see how repubs win any statewide races. That was passed on by someone else but I do think I remember reading it after a recent announcement regarding new registrations.

            •  No, he didn't say that at all (0+ / 0-)

              Ralston has made clear it's only the Presidential that he thinks is out of reach for the GOP.

              He's actually become very quiet about the Senate race recently.  I suspect, but don't know, that he's torn, on one hand he expects (and wants) a Heller win based on all the same information most analysts point to, but on the other hand the stuff about polls routinely understating Democratic strength, and the reality of Presidential turnout, make him skiddish to be truly confident of it.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 06:55:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Also a Mellman Group Poll did show her ahead (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        as did one PPP poll conducted for a client.

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