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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: The waiting game begins as Democrats hope for post-debate mojo (293 comments)

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  •  If O Wins Wisconsin/Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada (9+ / 0-)

    then Romney has very little chance of victory.  He would have to sweep Florida NC Virginia Ohio and Colorado.  Assume he wins Florida and NC, if Virginia is 50/50 and his chances at Ohio and Colorado are only 40% each, the chance he wins all three is only 8%.  It looks pretty good if O holds the current map.  If we hold Ohio game over and it is looking like a firewall.  Romney can get to 47% in a lot of these states but that last 4% is just impossible to find.  The demographics are killing the Republicans.
    With about 2 weeks of campaigning left, not sure what Romney can do at this point to move the electorate.  There are no more game changers out there.  The third debate will not help either candidate though Obama will likely win it wont change votes.  The economy is spinning off good news but not enough to change minds either.  Paid ads offset each other and what's left is the ground game at this point, the edge has to be with Obama.  I just want the pleasure of watching Fox as they call election for O.  

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