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View Diary: Gallup: Unemployment Collapsing (21 comments)

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  •  Statistical anomaly (4+ / 0-)
    Seasonal adjustments expected that California, as it usually does, would report a jump in claims at the beginning of the quarter. Instead, the jump happened the second week. This is a major factor behind violent swings in weekly jobless claims, up 46,000 in the October 13 week after dropping a revised 27,000 in the prior week. Swings like this, which weekly data are subject to, raise the importance of the four-week average which is only slightly higher, up less than 1,000 to 365,500. This level, in what may be an overlooked plus in this report, is more than 10,000 lower than the month ago trend.
    California didn't fully report its jobless claims last week, explaining the plunge then, so it go bottlenecked to this week instead.

    And I guess I'd point out that the 7.7% adjusted rate surveyed by Gallup confirms, at least, that the unemployment rate is experiencing a genuine fall.

    "Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." ~Edward Abbey ////\\\\ "To be a poor man is hard, but to be a poor race in a land of dollars is the very bottom of hardships." ~W.E.B. DuBois

    by rovertheoctopus on Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 07:01:59 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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