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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Quants vs pundits and the state of the race (142 comments)

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  •  polls were right (4+ / 0-)
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    SneakySnu, Scarce, hulibow, skohayes
    For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not  far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of  7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away  from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

    Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see  Public Opinion  Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain  support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.

    Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were  perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (*).

    The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).  

    1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)
    1. Pew (10/29-11/1)
    2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
    3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
    4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)
    5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)
    5. ARG (10/25-27)

    6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
    6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
    7. DailyKos.com (D)Research 2000 (11/1-3)
    8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
    9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
    10. FOX (11/1-2)
    11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
    12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
    13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
    14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
    15. Marist College (11/3)
    16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
    17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
    18. Reuters
    C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
    19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
    20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

    http://www.fordham.edu/...

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:01:15 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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