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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Quants vs pundits and the state of the race (142 comments)

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  •  The Strength of Dem senate candidates in the swing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zekeaz, Fury, LeslieMouse

    states (except perhaps PA where Casey is slipping but still leading) is reassuring to me.  If Romney were making the big move his campaign and much of the press claim, Baldwin and Brown wouldn't have the leads they do. So I tend to think the lead O has in the state polls in the swing states is real. National polls and national tracking polls are less convincing.  There appear to be many problems with their samples, the L/V screens, party ID's, etc. and the aggregators are also split with RCP and HP Pollster showing Romney with a small lead and TPM and 538 showing Obama with a small lead.  One can pick the aggregator who tells you what you want to hear but that is a mistake (although it may help settle our stomachs). So I go back to state polling and that tells me Romney has a very steep climb to 270 electoral votes.

    Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a Republican. But I repeat myself. Harry Truman

    by ratcityreprobate on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:11:20 AM PDT

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