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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Quants vs pundits and the state of the race (142 comments)

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  •  Are any of the trackers (0+ / 0-)

    producing sharp sudden enthusiasm based turns like Rand does? I mean, it is tracking the same set of voters.

    I don't know whats in the formula, obviously. But this isn't bringing and dropping people and moving around in the field. This is the same core set of people.

    •  yes, it is unique (0+ / 0-)

      and the only place to know if the same people changed their mind.

      Then again you can't directly compare Beyesian and probabilistic polling directly as to methodology. just look at the results, gotten from different directions.

      The actual RAND graph tracks the aggregate polling pretty well.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:23:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  as for other trackers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      brooklynbadboy

      too early to tell, but we get to see if this is a one day, a leading indicator of a trend, etc.

      gotta wait till friday for that, sorry.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:25:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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